If Bitcoin's price doesn't move for 6 years, can we hold on?

I have shared some insights from the well-known A-share investor Lin Yuan multiple times in my articles. His views often provide deep inspiration from a very unique perspective.

Recently, I came across an interesting video of an interview with Lin Yuan conducted by Gelong.

In the interview, Gelong mentioned an experience of Lin Yuan:

In 2007, the closing price of Moutai stock was 199 yuan, and the net profit for that year was 2.8 billion yuan. By 2013, the closing price of Moutai stock was 113 yuan, and the net profit for that year was 15.1 billion yuan.

During these six years, Moutai's net profit increased by more than four times, but according to the annual closing price, its stock price actually fell instead of rising.

In response, Gelong asked Lin Yuan how he managed to hold on to Moutai during these six years. How could he persist in not selling Moutai?

Lin Yuan answered very straightforwardly, saying that for him, this was not a struggle.

First, the price at which he bought Moutai was much lower than the stock price at that time.

Second, during these six years, he saw Moutai's net profit increase significantly, which further convinced him that Moutai's true value was much higher than its stock price. In this situation, he wouldn't even consider the stock price.

Here, it is necessary to add some background knowledge:

From the end of 2007 to the end of 2013, Moutai's stock price experienced two significant bull and bear cycles. During these two cycles, Moutai's stock price retraced by more than 50%.

With this background in mind, we see that Lin Yuan managed to completely ignore two price retracements of over 50% during these six years, steadfastly holding onto his favored investment without any movement.

This is strikingly similar to some of Buffett's operations.

Furthermore, regarding Lin Yuan's two statements, I understand them as follows:

When the purchase price is far below the market price, he does not feel distressed. I speculate that what he wants to express is: for him, if he buys an investment at a very low price, as long as the subsequent price is much higher than his purchase price, he will not have the feeling of "distress" psychologically, and he will not feel the discomfort of losses.

When the intrinsic value of an investment grows significantly and is clearly higher than its stock price, Lin Yuan is completely unconcerned that this stock price will forever linger at a low level, believing that there will definitely be a day when it demonstrates its value. At least he managed to remain indifferent to the stock price for six years.

After watching this interview, I immediately thought of the crypto world and of myself.

If I count from the earliest purchase of Bitcoin and Ethereum to now, the prices at which I bought them were far lower than their current prices.

However, during this process, I really cannot avoid feeling "distressed," because even though I know that the long-term trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is definitely bullish, when I feel that the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (in the late bull market) are "too high," I still cannot help but sell—this is what I often refer to as selling during a bull market.

Although I often talk about selling during a bull market and have practiced this strategy in past cycles, successfully hitting the mark each time, my inner feelings are like walking on thin ice, because I really do not have that much confidence that I can do it again at the right position next time.

So far this year, I have read books by Dan Bin, books by Munger, and I am currently reading books by Buffett. Frankly speaking, after reading these predecessors' books, I increasingly feel that the profits from those few times of selling during a bull market were due to my good luck, rather than my strong judgment. Now, after watching Lin Yuan's interview, this feeling is even stronger.

Now, let's think about Bitcoin and Ethereum from this perspective:

First, whether from the perspective of intrinsic ecological development, community consensus, or from external funding channels and regulatory development, I firmly believe that the long-term value of Bitcoin and Ethereum is upward.

But what if the story of Moutai happens to Bitcoin and Ethereum? For example, from this year to six years later in 2030, what if the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain at $60,000 and $3,400?

Earlier, I wrote in an article that if this round of market does not see Bitcoin's price exceed $100,000, I wouldn't even think about selling; I would hold onto it until the next expected bull market four years later.

But this assumption actually has a default premise: that is, four years later, Bitcoin's price will definitely exceed $100,000.

This is similar to Lin Yuan's understanding of Moutai, and our understanding and cognition of Bitcoin and this field!