How to Deal with "Garbage Time" in the Market | Q&A

1. What is your view on the current real estate market?

I have been paying attention to real estate, but I am not an expert in the field. However, I believe that you don't need specialized knowledge for this; common sense is enough to judge the general trend.

Recognizing this trend can at least help us ordinary people stay clear-headed and calm when preparing to invest a large amount of money in real estate, avoiding mistakes that could drag us down for a lifetime.

I hold a very cautious attitude towards the current and future real estate market in mainland China. I think it will continue to decline for a while, and ultimately, only a few first-tier cities and quasi-first-tier cities will be able to stabilize.

Among these cities where housing prices can eventually stabilize, only properties in core areas and prime locations have hope; other areas are generally average.

Finally, and most importantly, the public's confidence must be fully restored for the overall situation to improve. When that confidence will be restored, I do not know.

2. In the investment market, "garbage time" is particularly vivid. Taking Bitcoin as an example, most of the gains are concentrated in a few months, and the increases during those months are concentrated in just a few days. All the waiting is for those crucial days.

I completely agree with this statement.

In addition, I not only find this statement very accurate, but I also believe there is another important point that many people overlook: we cannot accurately determine when these important months and crucial days begin and end.

Therefore, I repeatedly emphasize: for ordinary investors (with the exception of geniuses), do not try to guess where the bottom or the top is.

But if we cannot guess where the bottom or the top is, how can we capture this wave?

Then we can only cover this "bottom" and "top" with a rough range—this is the essence of dollar-cost averaging and systematic selling.

In fact, this is not only true in the crypto world; it is a universal rule, and in traditional investment circles, it is even more prevalent.

Moreover, the manifestation of this rule in traditional investment circles is much harsher than in the crypto world.

What does this mean?

In the crypto ecosystem, at least up to now, we have experienced several major bull and bear markets in a cycle of about 4 years. This means that in past markets, we could basically capture important months and crucial days by enduring every 4 years.

In contrast, traditional investment markets require investors to wait for 10, 15, 20 years, or even longer to capture those important months and crucial days.

Therefore, for ordinary people, if they are not willing to patiently wait even the short 4 years in the crypto ecosystem, I truly cannot see any other ecosystem that would provide such opportunities.

Thus, being able to plan our wealth growth path in the crypto ecosystem on a 4-year cycle is indeed a great fortune and opportunity for every retail investor.

We must cherish it.

But will this 4-year cycle continue indefinitely?

I am very skeptical; I believe it will eventually become ineffective, but I do not know when that will happen. That is why I say I will always keep at least 20% of my position unsold to guard against that day.

It is precisely because the transition between bull and bear cycles in traditional investment circles is so long that there are so many people obsessed with short-term trading.

Many people do not want to wait, are unwilling to wait, or simply cannot afford to wait.

But what is the actual effect?

The vast majority of people engaging in short-term trading still cannot accumulate wealth. This rule applies equally in the crypto world.

Sometimes I think: one of my many strokes of luck is that before I entered the crypto ecosystem, I had already proven through practice in the traditional field that I am not suited for short-term trading.

With this lesson, I can calmly reject the temptation of short-term trading when I enter the crypto ecosystem and directly engage in medium- to long-term investments.