Who will hold the most Bitcoin in 2024? Will the price of Bitcoin reach a new high this year?

Although Bitcoin has gone through more than a decade of development, it still seems to be a sensitive topic in some places. Nevertheless, over the past ten years, Bitcoin has achieved remarkable success, with its asset price performance surpassing that of gold, oil, and stocks. As shown in the figure below.

From the perspective of total market capitalization, Bitcoin has now entered the top 10 asset types globally. As shown in the figure below.

Many people may be curious about who currently holds the most Bitcoin.

1. Overall Distribution of Bitcoin

Due to the anonymity of blockchain, there is no specific answer to this question. However, we can still gain a basic understanding through on-chain data to see the approximate situation of Bitcoin held by individuals, institutions, and governments.

- Wallet addresses holding over 100,000 Bitcoins

As of now, there are only 4 Bitcoin wallets with balances between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, accounting for about 3.6% of the total circulating supply. Among them, two wallets belong to Binance, one wallet belongs to Bitfinex, and one wallet belongs to Robinhood. As shown in the figure below.

However, this does not mean that the Bitcoins are entirely owned by the respective exchanges, as a large portion of the Bitcoins held by exchanges actually belongs to users (including individual and institutional users). The specific distribution of holders is likely known only to the exchanges themselves.

- Wallet addresses holding over 10,000 Bitcoins

Apart from the top 4 addresses mentioned above, the next 98 wallet addresses in the list hold over 10,000 Bitcoins, collectively accounting for about 12% of the total circulating supply. As shown in the figure below.

Among these large wallets, aside from the already labeled addresses, the other unlabeled addresses belong to anonymous wallets (which could be individuals or institutions).

The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, and as of the writing of this article, approximately 19.74 million have been mined. The current overall distribution is shown in the figure below:

However, it is worth noting that although the theoretical circulating supply of Bitcoin is 19.74 million, the actual circulation is less than this number, as it is estimated that about 4 million Bitcoins are permanently lost. Additionally, individuals/institutions/governments can also own multiple wallet addresses (storing Bitcoins across multiple addresses), so we cannot definitively know who currently holds the most Bitcoin. We can only get a rough understanding through wallet addresses (in conjunction with publicly available addresses or on-chain tags). Of course, let's not forget that Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet address still holds over 1 million Bitcoins (which can be considered lost, as the likelihood of this wallet address being reactivated is very low).

2. Bitcoin Holdings by Entities or Institutions

Currently, over 90 entities hold BTC or consider BTC as an investment and asset, with a cumulative holding of 2,609,234 BTC. As shown in the figure below.

Since many companies are required to publicly disclose their financial statements, if you are interested, you can further observe the holding costs (i.e., the base purchase cost of BTC), as well as the accumulation and reduction operations of different institutions to understand potential market trends. As shown in the figure below.

Having discussed the overall distribution of Bitcoin, let's talk about a question that everyone may be concerned about: Will Bitcoin's price reach new highs this year?

A couple of days ago (on August 15, Beijing time), the U.S. released two important economic data points: retail data and unemployment rate data.

Regarding retail data: U.S. retail data for July significantly exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 1% (far exceeding the expected 0.4%). The growth in retail data seems to indicate that the U.S. consumer market is still quite active, and the purchasing willingness of the American public is recovering, suggesting that there are no signs of the anticipated recession. This has somewhat dampened expectations for interest rate cuts.

Regarding unemployment rate data: The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. has decreased for the second consecutive week, with the number of first-time claims falling to 227,000 for the week ending August 10 (below the expected 235,000), and the number of continuing claims also decreased to 1.86 million. Although there is a clear seasonal pattern in weekly unemployment claims, compared to previous years, this year's unemployment data does not seem to show significant deterioration.

Overall, the latest data seems to have significantly cooled the previously existing recession expectations, as the data indicates that the U.S. economy remains strong (regardless of whether this is true or not, it appears so from the published data). Following the release of this data, the U.S. stock market reacted positively, with the dollar index returning above 103 and the S&P 500 index rising significantly. As shown in the figure below.

Behind this data, it also provides the Federal Reserve with a gentle way to lower interest rates (whether they created this opportunity for themselves is not particularly important), because if the economy remains strong, the previously anticipated recession crisis will naturally be alleviated, and the Federal Reserve has no reason to rush to cut rates by 50 basis points in September.

In this macroeconomic context, the cryptocurrency market has become seemingly more "fragile" in recent days. On one hand, there is hope that interest rate cuts could bring new liquidity to the market; on the other hand, there is fear that aggressive rate cuts could lead to a collapse in the stock market, resulting in larger black swan events.

Therefore, it is indeed a challenging time for the cryptocurrency market, which seems to be in a relatively critical adjustment period. In the short term, if BTC can maintain around $58,000, it may continue to rise to the $62,000-$65,000 range. If it falls below $58,000, it may enter a deeper correction zone below $55,000.

As for which direction the market will take, we cannot accurately predict at this moment, but we can first sort through some basic events/situations:

1. Government Holdings and Sell-offs

Currently, various governments hold a significant amount of Bitcoin, some of which are publicly verifiable, while others are more secretive. For instance, countries like El Salvador have publicly acknowledged Bitcoin as legal tender and are actively accumulating Bitcoin. However, it is said that countries like North Korea have been secretly acquiring cryptocurrencies through hacking and other dubious means.

From some publicly available data, the U.S. currently holds at least 210,000 Bitcoins, a major Asian country holds at least 190,000 Bitcoins, the UK government holds at least 60,000 Bitcoins, and certain members of the Ukrainian government privately hold about 46,000 Bitcoins. As shown in the figure below.

Regarding sell-offs, although the recent sell-off by the German government seems to have diminished the impact of such news on some people, these sell-offs can still exert some negative pressure on the market. For example, the UK government’s holding of over 60,000 Bitcoins may lead the new Chancellor Rachel Reeves to sell them off, similar to Germany.

2. ETH Fund Inflows and Outflows

- Bitcoin ETF

In terms of ETF holdings, the top few currently include DCG (the parent company of Grayscale), SIG (a multinational private fintech company in the U.S. that invested $1.31 billion in Bitcoin ETF in the first quarter), Millennium Management (an asset management company based in New York), and Jane Street, among others. As shown in the figure below.

The 13F filings shown in the figure refer to institutional investment declaration forms, which are required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for investment institutions or advisors with assets under management exceeding $100 million to submit quarterly reports within 45 days after the end of each quarter. Therefore, by observing the changes in these institutions' 13F holdings, investors can gain insights into professional investment managers' views on market trends. Due to the inherent lag in the publication of this report and the exclusion of short positions, it cannot fully and timely reflect a company's investment portfolio strategy, so we should only use it as a reference.

Alternatively, we can also refer to the inflow and outflow data of BTC ETFs. As shown in the figure below.

- Ethereum ETF

Currently, the focus may be on the outflow situation of Grayscale's Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETHE). As of the writing of this article, ETHE has a historical net outflow of $2.386 billion, while ETHE holds approximately $9 billion worth of ETH, which means that the fund has reduced its total holdings by over 25% since the ETF launch (on July 23). As shown in the figure below.

Therefore, some analysts believe that as the outflow of ETHE progresses, it will become one of the main bullish catalysts for ETH prices in the coming months. They believe that ETH's price may follow a similar trajectory to BTC's, as after the official launch of the BTC ETF earlier this year, GBTC also experienced significant outflows, but subsequently, BTC's price rose and reached a new all-time high.

3. Trump and the U.S. Presidential Election in November

Trump currently seems to have been dubbed the "Crypto President" by some, and many analysts believe that if Trump wins the presidential election this year, it will lead the market back into a frenzy and push Bitcoin to break through $150,000.

However, based on current predictive data, it seems that the likelihood of this crypto president winning has decreased. As shown in the figure below. This also means that if Trump loses, the new president may introduce new uncertainties to the cryptocurrency market.

4. BTC.D Data Indicator

The BTC.D indicator currently appears interesting, having continued to decline after retesting the 57% level, which seems to be a critical position. If we refer to past cycle data, we can also find that this position appears to be a theoretically optimal range for the start of altcoin seasons. As shown in the figure below.

Although many analysts believe that we will not see an altcoin season again, the data indicators do not seem to suggest such a dire situation. However, indicators are merely a reflection of historical data and cannot accurately predict the market.

As for whether Bitcoin's price will continue to reach new highs this year, this matter is subject to debate, and others' opinions may not provide much practical help for your current operations. Your pressure may not stem from whether BTC can break new highs or reach $100,000 this year, but rather from potential issues in your risk assessment and position management. Therefore, we suggest that you reflect and review these two aspects.

As for the market direction, whether a bull market can be seen before the end of this year (or in the first quarter of next year), let's first observe the market's performance in September and October. Currently, the main issue affecting market conditions is liquidity, which primarily depends on the macroeconomic situation.

In summary, the market is still in a critical adjustment period, with both favorable catalysts and unfavorable factors present. This period often carries the highest risks, and the market requires greater liquidity stimulation and new narrative stories to potentially enter a bull market.

Therefore, if you cannot make a decision yourself, the best action during this period is to do nothing. If you wish to take action, our advice remains unchanged: if you believe the bull market is still ongoing, continue to buy BTC or ETH in batches (note that it should be in batches) at positions you can accept, then be patient and prepare for the long term mentally.

We will conclude this issue here. For more content, you can check the Huahua homepage.

Disclaimer: The above content is merely personal opinions and analyses, intended for learning records and communication purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency field is a highly risky market, and many projects carry the risk of becoming worthless at any time. Please view it rationally, do not engage if you do not understand, and take responsibility for yourself.