Investment Expectations and Objective Reality

In last Saturday's online discussion, many friends expressed significant concerns about the current market situation and future expectations.

I recall that this kind of concern was also felt during the last online discussion, but this time it feels a bit different:

Last time, the sentiment was driven by a relatively high position in altcoins (coins other than Bitcoin and Ethereum); this time, the sentiment is driven by a relatively high position in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to my long-standing view: if the holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum are high, there shouldn't be much problem in the long term, and the risks are completely manageable.

Although the current crypto ecosystem is facing serious issues in terms of application innovation, this ecosystem still holds significant potential and hope even when looking further into the future.

During the online discussion, I cited a historical example I recently read in Fisher's book:

In the 1940s and 1950s in the United States, semiconductors became an emerging industry and a hot investment area at that time. Even today, we are amazed to find that semiconductors remain a popular investment field in the global high-tech sector—only the forms of semiconductor products have undergone tremendous changes, evolving from small electronic products of that time to chips and the hardware core of artificial intelligence that people could not have imagined back then.

A semiconductor industry has stood strong for over 70 years and remains vibrant. What about today's blockchain technology?

Bitcoin and Ethereum can certainly be considered innovations at the level of human civilization, and their potential should not be underestimated. Blockchain technology has the potential to interact with innovations in artificial intelligence at another level of civilization, producing applications we cannot imagine.

I am fully confident in such technology.

In addition, during the discussion, I expressed another viewpoint that I had mentioned in an article a long time ago but had not brought up much since. However, I believe it still holds true, which is:

I think the main driving force that will continue to push the entire crypto ecosystem forward in the future will likely come from Ethereum, and I still believe that one day Ethereum's total market value will surpass that of Bitcoin.

So for friends holding Bitcoin and Ethereum, I think there is no need to worry too much about the prospects of these two assets.

The concerns expressed by friends during the discussion seem to stem more from the severe macro environment, which brings tremendous pressure on individuals and families in their daily lives. It is likely that the proportion of funds invested in crypto assets is slightly too high, affecting and interfering with daily life.

In this situation, I can only suggest that ensuring a stable life should be the primary goal. If problems do arise, it may be necessary to sell some Bitcoin and Ethereum.

No matter how precious Bitcoin and Ethereum are, they are not more precious than human life. As long as there are people, miracles exist, and the future is there.

Additionally, I want to remind everyone that although this industry seems to always be filled with various "get-rich-quick" opportunities, many of those opportunities are actually illusions, and the vast majority of people can grasp very few of them.

As far as I know, there are not many stable income jobs and positions in this industry, and even if there are, the requirements for individuals are very high. Therefore, unless one's personal conditions are particularly good and the position is indeed reliable, it is better not to easily give up the current job in this harsh environment to switch to the crypto industry.