Moody's modeling predicts Harris has a 55.5% chance of winning the election

ChainCatcher news, analysts from Moody's Analytics have identified the economic variables that best predict election outcomes based on research from past presidential elections. The analysis model shows that the significantly decreased mortgage rates and the continued decline in gasoline prices since last year are improving Harris's chances of winning.

Additionally, the growth in household income may also contribute to increasing Harris's winning probability. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income in the second quarter of 2024 increased by more than 5% year-on-year, slowing to 3.1% in the third quarter, but still above the 10-year average of 2.9%.

Moody's economist Justin Begley stated that the model indicates it is still uncertain who will win this election, as four states—Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania—account for 57 electoral votes and are considered too close to call.

Begley said, "Harris's expected nationwide popular vote advantage has increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to our upward revision of the actual household income forecasts for the states."

He also added that the results of running the model 1,000 times show a 55.5% probability of Harris winning, slightly better than too close to call. (Jin Shi)