Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: October 28 - November 1, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.32 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.92%, which is $1.37 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $172.7 billion.
This week, BTC's price showed a range-bound fluctuation, with the current price of BTC at $69,474 and ETH at $2,502. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while most fell, including: RAY with a 7-day increase of 31.43%, DOGE with a 7-day increase of 20.5%, and the popular project GRASS with a 7-day increase of 103.23%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $2.172 billion, and the net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $13 million.
On November 1, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points in November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%.
The U.S. elections in 2024 will be held on November 5, and the election results will have a significant impact on the crypto world.
On November 1, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 72 (the same as last week), indicating a sentiment of greed over the past 7 days.
Understanding Now
Weekly Major Events Review
Vitalik criticized Ethereum detractors in a "wartime state";
Data shows that Solana's network TVL increased nearly 20% in the past week, reaching a new high since January 2022;
Top trader Eugene: the market will continue to rise after the election, optimistic about Solana;
On October 29, USDT was officially launched on the Aptos mainnet;
The ETH/BTC exchange rate briefly fell below 0.036 on the morning of October 29, reaching the lowest level since the bull market peak in 2021;
Trump-related stocks opened high, with shares of Trump Media & Technology Group rising 8.4%;
On October 30, DWF Labs announced the dismissal of a partner accused of attempted rape from management and operational duties;
Vitalik's previous sale of meme coins, yielding 400 ETH, has been donated to a Ukrainian charity;
Tether increased the issuance of 1 billion USDT (authorized but not yet issued) on the morning of October 30;
The Arena: ARENA tokens are open for initial airdrop claims;
dYdX Trading announced a 35% reduction in core team members;
The Optimism Foundation will provide a grant of 25 million OP tokens to Kraken, with the funding agreement reached earlier this year;
The Ordinals protocol founder Casey Rodarmor's etched rune MEMENTO•MORI has completed its airdrop;
Jito has opened for re-staking deposits;
FDUSD will expand to Solana;
Tether's Q3 net profit was $2.5 billion, holding over $100 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds;
Zircuit Fairdrop has been opened to EIGEN holders and stakers;
Trump's crypto project World Liberty Financial has cut its fundraising target by 90% to $30 million;
On November 1, CZ hinted that a bull market will arrive in 2025, calling 2024 a "year of recovery."
Macroeconomics
On October 31, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital has submitted an application for a SOL ETF to the U.S. SEC;
On October 31, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, posted on X that the U.S. SEC has officially accepted the application to convert the "Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund" (code: GDLC) into an ETF, and the SEC is seeking public comments;
On November 1, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points in November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%;
On November 2, according to public documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 21Shares has submitted an S-1 application to launch the first XRP ETF "21Shares Core XRP Trust."
ETF

According to statistics, from October 28 to November 1, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $2.172 billion; as of November 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $20.116 billion, currently holding $15.209 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $29.701 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $71.735 billion.
The net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $13 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
Devcon 2024 will be held from November 12 to November 15, 2024, in Bangkok, Thailand;
The Block will host the Web3 Summit "Emergence" from December 5 to 6 at the Prague Congress Center in the Czech Republic. This summit will facilitate connections between technology and capital, bridging Wall Street and the crypto space, gathering representatives from various industries and chains to discuss ETFs, asset management, and uncertainties in crypto regulation. Through collaboration with Foresight Ventures, Emergence will provide insights into driving cryptocurrency development in Asia and bridge the gap between Eastern and Western capital and talent.
Project Progress
Sonic Labs (formerly Fantom) will end its new bounty program "Sonic Boom" on November 4, with up to 30 winning projects receiving corresponding point allocations in emerald, sapphire, and ruby levels. Sonic Gems point holders will receive a distribution of 37.5% of the total airdrop tokens in the future. Winning projects can allocate airdrop points to users as rewards for using their applications;
The Ginger upgrade for the modular blockchain Celestia will activate at Arabica height 2348907 (expected on November 5, 2024) and is expected to enter the Mocha testnet in November and the mainnet beta in December;
The blockchain-based video conferencing project Huddle01 will conduct a public sale of nodes on November 6, aiming to raise $37 million through this sale;
The Gitcoin grant GG22 program deadline is November 7 at 7:59;
The stablecoin protocol Usual's point activity will last for 4 months, until November 10.
Important Events
Paxful co-founder and former CTO Artur Schaback is scheduled to be sentenced on November 4, facing up to five years in prison. Artur Schaback has pleaded guilty to conspiracy and failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering (AML) program, and he will also resign from the Paxful board;
The U.S. elections in 2024 will be held on November 5;
Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms has postponed its meeting originally scheduled for October 29 to November 6, following a request for a special shareholders' meeting by Riot Platforms. Riot Platforms and Bitfarms announced in a joint statement on September 23, 2024, that they had resolved their dispute through a settlement agreement;
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on BlackRock's application for Ethereum spot ETF options trading, with the latest deadlines set for November 10.
Token Unlocks
Gravity token G will unlock approximately 310 million tokens on November 5, valued at about $8.98 million, accounting for 2.59% of the current circulation;
Ethereum Name Service token ENS will unlock approximately 1.46 million tokens on November 8, valued at about $24.12 million, accounting for 1.46% of the current circulation;
GMT token GMT will unlock approximately 92.22 million tokens on November 9, valued at about $11.63 million, accounting for 1.54% of the current circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space for the first time or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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