Bitfinex: The current crypto bull market is expected to peak in Q3 or Q4 of next year

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, and its price has increased by 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETFs and spot accumulation.

Historical data suggests that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators suggest that we are still in the bull market phase but far from reaching the peak. The Pi cycle top and the 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000.

From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC that we observed in previous cycles.