Matrixport: The current selling pressure on ETFs seems to have paused, and hedge funds may reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March

ChainCatcher message, Matrixport analysis indicates that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the outflow of funds this month has reached a new high, which may be related to hedge funds closing basis trades (going long on ETFs and shorting futures). This trend is consistent with the reduction of $8 billion in open contracts for Bitcoin futures on the CME after the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in December 2024, which exceeds the total inflow of funds into ETFs by 20%.

Additionally, the expiration of February futures contracts may also be a source of selling pressure, but this factor has currently been absorbed by the market. Matrixport believes that as the impact gradually weakens, hedge funds may reduce ETF sell-offs and reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March. At present, ETF selling pressure seems to have temporarily halted.