Arc releases V1 litepaper, why is the price accelerating downward?
In a Crypto market that is in urgent need of external positive stimuli, "good news" similar to blueprint planning seems insufficient.Author: Haotian
As the last remaining backbone of the previous wave of on-chain AI Agents, it is truly baffling that after issuing a significant "positive news" with V1, it continued to accelerate its decline. However, in a crypto market that desperately needs external positive stimuli, such "good news" related to blueprint planning seems insufficient and may even be interpreted as disappointing, leading to further declines? Anyway, let me share my thoughts after reading the arc V1 litepaper:
1) From Rig as the underlying Rust framework to its rapid launch of Launchpad ahead of #ai16z, the technical fundamentals of $arc have always been relatively solid and stable. This is likely the key reason it has been able to reverse the tide multiple times during the turbulent times of the entire AI Agent market.
However, as I mentioned in my previous analysis of manus, web3 AI Agents have always lacked the innovative drive comparable to web2 AI Agents. Many AI Agents remain immersed in some vague and ethereal visions, leading to a frustrated market sentiment towards web3 AI Agents.
Therefore, not just arc, but the overall market capitalization of on-chain AI Agents has been sharply declining, urgently needing a new hope to emerge on-chain. Thus, I believe the issues with arc itself are not significant; it is just currently challenging for a single project to break through the overall downward trend of the sector.
2) The core feature of arc V1 is an "AI Agent App Store" called Ryzome, which can connect both web2 and web3 AI Agents. To be honest, during the key period when manus was highly favored, Arc's launch of Ryzome does seem a bit opportunistic. However, once you understand the architectural concepts and specific measures behind Ryzome, your perspective will change.
The overall design architecture of Ryzome follows the interactive operational protocol layer concept commonly used in web3, essentially building a multi-chain architecture similar to Cosmos. Ryzome serves as its IBC relay chain interoperability protocol, enabling interoperability between different blockchains. Therefore, Ryzome's claim to bridge web2 AI Agents and web3 AI Agents is not unfounded.
Within Ryzome's core technical architecture, there is an Anthropic model context protocol (MCP) that acts as a translator in the AI field. When compared to the Cosmos architecture, it functions as a webAssembly (WASM) bridge, allowing Agents using different API service interfaces to communicate with each other.
The white paper states that this is similar to AI's HTTP, enabling AI Agents running on platforms like Nation, Slack, and Google Calendar to seamlessly connect to the Ryzome system. Notably, many web2 AI Agents are essentially "data islands" due to their centralized server architecture. The MCP "compiler" can also facilitate data interoperability between web2 AI Agents, constructing a unified standardized interface and communication language, thus eliminating barriers to cross-platform collaboration.
Overall, aside from the somewhat devalued name definition of "App Store," the other frameworks and design concepts of Ryzome align well with the future vision of multi-AI Agent interactive communication. Even if people criticize arc for merely riding on concepts, it is still commendable to have developed such a comprehensive architecture within a day or two of manus's launch.
3) Regarding the future application scenarios of the Arc token, the white paper mentions that arc will become the primary fuel for the Ryzome ecosystem, driving the entire system's operation. This means that as long as web2 and web3 AI Agents utilize this standard for interaction, their transaction fees will be settled using arc.
In other words, if web2 Agents want to interact, they will also need to use arc as fuel. After seeing the multi-modal execution agent built by manus, everyone realizes that the future of Agents will inevitably lead to an era of large-scale collaborative applications. In this context, arc providing a set of incentive models and frameworks with its own tokens actually makes sense.
That's all.
I really don't want to discuss why value isn't supported by price in a downward trend. In fact, looking at the long term, whether there is a need for interoperability between web2 AI Agents and web3, what will support the ecosystem after Agent interoperability generates transactions, and whether the future trend of the AI Agent sector will continue are all important questions. Once you understand these, you can view the above analysis objectively and grasp what I am expressing.
During a market uptrend, no one cares about the technical and operational fundamentals, which is understandable. However, during a market downturn, if the technical and operational fundamentals are equally ineffective, then let’s at least give a bit of confidence to those who believe!
