The White House's First Cryptocurrency Summit Jointly Discusses Division and Consensus as the Market Remains in a State of Panic | Hotcoin Research Market Insights
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.85 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.4%, which is $1.72 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $227.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.02%, of which USDT accounts for 62.98%.
This week, BTC's price showed range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $85,772; ETH also showed range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $2,134.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: S with a 7-day decline of 28.94%, BERA with a 7-day decline of 25.49%, AI16Z with a 7-day decline of 41.04%, ADA with a 7-day increase of 26.88%, and BCH with a 7-day increase of 18.46%.
This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $699.1 million; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $82.7 million.
On March 8, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 28 (higher than last week), with the sentiment this week: 2 days of extreme fear, 5 days of fear.
Market Prediction: This week, the market experienced range-bound fluctuations, with value trends influenced by macro fundamentals. Stablecoins showed slight growth, and the outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was lower than last week. The market remains shrouded in panic, with sentiment better than last week but still in fear.
A relatively positive piece of news: The first cryptocurrency summit was held at the White House, attended by industry leaders, discussing topics including the SEC regulatory framework and compliance insurance funds for stablecoins. The rhetoric was relatively "official," indicating that the path to crypto compliance is long but hopeful. The short-term market will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations until a clear interest rate cut occurs, at which point liquidity will truly flow into the crypto space.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On March 2, according to F2pool data, based on the current Bitcoin mining difficulty, Bitcoin price of $85,580, and electricity cost of $0.06 per kWh, Bitcoin miners Antminer S19, Shenua M33S+, and Shenua M30S+ have reached breakeven price;
On March 2, according to Bitrace monitoring, as of March 2, 2025, 17:00, USDT issuer Tether and USDC issuer Circle have frozen at least 5 Ethereum and Tron addresses related to the Bybit hacker, successfully intercepting over 760,000 USDT and USDC;
On March 2, Trump posted on social media stating, "After years of suppression by the Biden administration, U.S. cryptocurrency reserves will elevate the status of this key industry. That is why my digital asset executive order directs the presidential task force to advance a cryptocurrency strategic reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA. I will ensure that America becomes the world’s cryptocurrency capital. We are making America great again!";
On March 3, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong commented on social media regarding "Trump advancing the cryptocurrency reserve plan," stating that in terms of asset allocation for strategic reserves, Bitcoin may be the best choice. As the successor to gold, Bitcoin has the simplest and clearest narrative. If people want more variety, they can create a market-cap weighted index of crypto assets to maintain fairness. But choosing only Bitcoin may be the simplest;
On March 4, U.S. President Trump stated that he would impose tariffs on countries that engage in currency devaluation;
On March 4, according to an official announcement, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that its special working group on crypto assets will hold a series of roundtable discussions to discuss key areas of crypto asset regulation. This series of events is called "Spring Sprint: Towards Clarity in Crypto Regulation," with the first roundtable "How Did We Get Here and How Do We Get Out of This - Defining Securities" scheduled for March 21;
On March 5, the U.S. Senate passed the Congressional Review Act (CRA) proposed by Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Mike Carey with a vote of 70 to 27, to repeal the so-called "DeFi broker rule" - an attack by the Biden administration on the crypto community at the last moment regarding the IRS "broker rule" involving DeFi;
On March 4, Aave DAO service provider Marc Zeller released a governance proposal seeking approval to implement the first part of updated Aavenomics, including updating AAVE token economics, redistributing protocol excess income, phasing out LEND tokens, and updating AAVE secondary liquidity protocol management;
On March 5, according to Cointelegraph, asset management company VanEck stated that the planned protocol upgrade for Solana is crucial for the long-term health of the network but may impact validator income. In March, Solana validators will vote on two blockchain protocol upgrade proposals (SIMD) aimed at ensuring stakers receive rewards and adjusting the inflation rate of SOL;
On March 6, according to ARKHAM monitoring, a wallet associated with Trump's crypto project WLFI just sent $25 million USDC to a separate contract, which purchased $10 million ETH, $10 million WBTC, and $1.5 million MOVE;
On March 6, according to Arkham monitoring, Mt. Gox transferred 166.5 Bitcoin again just 6 minutes ago and conducted a transfer test to BitGo. Mt. Gox transferred 12,000 Bitcoin to an unknown new address, valued at approximately $1.09 billion;
The first White House cryptocurrency summit was held on March 8 at 2:30 AM, with attendees including executives from several crypto companies such as Coinbase, Chainlink, Exodus, and Strategy.
Macroeconomics
On March 4, Yuga Labs' X account stated that "the SEC has officially concluded its investigation of Yuga Labs, which lasted more than three years. This is a significant victory for the NFT industry and all creators driving ecological development. NFTs are not securities.";
On March 7, according to Cointelegraph, as of now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dismissed or suspended lawsuits and investigations against 11 crypto companies/individuals, including: Binance (February 10), Coinbase (February 21), OpenSea (February 21), Robinhood (February 24), Uniswap (February 25), Gemini (February 26), Justin Sun (February 26), Consensys (February 27), Kraken (March 3), Yuga Labs (March 4), DRW (March 4);
On March 7, according to CME "FedWatch" data, there are 12 days left until the next FOMC meeting, with a 9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March and a 91% probability of maintaining the current rate. The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 45.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 50.7%;
On March 3, European stock markets generally rose, with Germany's DAX index surging 3% in a single day, France's CAC40 index and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising over 1%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rising 1%;
On March 4, Japan's 30-year government bond yield rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008.
ETF
According to statistics, from March 3 to March 7, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $699.1 million; as of March 7, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.375 billion, currently holding $17.02 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $49.792 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $100.76 billion.
The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $82.7 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
Digital Asset Summit 2025 will be held from March 18 to March 20, 2025, in New York, USA;
Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from March 30 to April 5, 2025, in Bangkok, Thailand;
The 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held from April 6 to April 9, 2025, at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, Hall 5BCDE.
Project Progress
PancakeSwap announced it will shut down its simple staking product at 8:00 on March 10, 2025, and users need to withdraw funds before March 10, 2025;
The AI-driven Web3 interaction platform AlphaOS has partnered with the decentralized crypto trading protocol Orca to launch a Trading Campaign event lasting until March 11, during which users can trade Orca liquidity pools through AlphaOS to earn double AlphaOS points and have a chance to receive ORCA token airdrops. AlphaOS points will be converted into future airdrop rewards after the TGE in the first half of 2025;
The modular blockchain network Hemi will officially launch its mainnet on March 12, 2025, aiming to unify Bitcoin and Ethereum into a super network;
The BNB Chain Pascal hard fork will go live on the mainnet in mid-March, integrating key features from the Ethereum Pectra upgrade to enhance compatibility between BSC and Ethereum;
The decentralized lending platform Liquity will redeploy the repaired Liquity V2 in mid-March, with the currently deployed Liquity V2 becoming a legacy protocol. The official recommendation is for existing V2 users to close positions and shut down loans;
The airdrop claim deadline for Pudgy Penguins token PENGU is March 15, 2025.
Important Events
The U.S. interest rate decision will be held at 2:30 AM Beijing time on March 20, 2025.
The pre-trial hearing related to the Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai Wallet has been postponed from December 17 to March 12, 2025, a delay of 90 days, with the trial date set for November 3, 2025.
Token Unlocking
GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on March 9, valued at approximately $4.51 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply.
Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock 11.85 million tokens on March 10, valued at approximately $93.82 million, accounting for 1.18% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on March 15, valued at approximately $50.37 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply.
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Risk Warning
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