Local frenzy or overall recovery? Data analysis of Solana chain MEME whale movements and market differentiation

Author: Frank, PANews

The MEME market seems to have heated up once again. Starting in mid-March, Fartcoin began to rebound from its lows, rising approximately 349% over about a month, with a peak market cap close to $985 million. Meanwhile, the actions of on-chain MEME whales have also attracted attention, as some whales spent millions of dollars investing in MEME coins like Fartcoin and RFC, leading to a rapid increase in the market cap of related tokens.

Behind these movements, on April 11, the number of active addresses on the Solana chain once again surpassed 5.1 million, approaching the peak level of January.

This round of MEME market mini-explosions raises the question of whether the MEME bull market is returning or if it is merely a speculative return in a boring market. PANews conducted data analysis on several large addresses of MEME coins that have seen significant increases recently, hoping to find clues.

Fartcoin Analysis: Whales Entered in Mid-March, Average Cost Around $0.62

First, after observing several previously high market cap tokens, PANews found that this round of MEME frenzy is not universal but concentrated among a few specific tokens. Most previously billion-dollar MEMEs (such as Trump, BONK, WIF, POPCAT) are still in a decline or bottoming phase. Among the tokens tracked by PANews, aside from Fartcoin, the others are either newly created coins in the last 1-2 months or tokens that have remained lukewarm since their issuance. The tokens observed by PANews include: RFC, Fartcoin, ALCH, GOHOME, DARK, House, FAT.

The token screening criteria are those with a market cap between $10 million and over $100 million, which have seen significant increases or rebounds in the past 1 to 3 months. Among them, RFC has seen the largest increase recently, with a peak increase of 54 times in the past month.

The leading token in this round is Fartcoin, which began a new upward trend after hitting a low on March 10. Its market cap once reached $948 million, becoming the leader in the MEME space again.

Analyzing the initial purchase times of large holders reveals that the collective entry of these large holders began in mid-March and continued to rise until April 10.

Fartcoin whale entry time distribution

In terms of cost, the initial purchase costs of the top 1000 large holders are mainly concentrated between $0.2-$0.6 and $0.6-$0.9. Combining this with Fartcoin's chart, it can be seen that the proportion of large holders currently trapped above $1 is relatively small. Overall analysis shows that the current holding large holders mostly began entering after the price low on March 12.

Fartcoin whale holding cost distribution

Overall, the initial purchase holding cost for Fartcoin's large holders is approximately $0.62. Based on the current price of $0.844, these new large holders have an average profit margin of about 36%.

23% Address Overlap, DARK and RFC Follow a Repetitive Script

Overall, by comparing the top 1000 large holders of these tokens, it was found that 23% of the large holder addresses hold at least two or more types of tokens. Among them, the most held token is DARK, which was created the most recently, but 116 large holders have repeatedly held this token.

Secondly, RFC has the highest number of repetitions, reaching 110 times. Fartcoin has recently attracted significant market attention, and its market cap is the highest among the analyzed tokens, but its repetition count is only 76 times. However, according to PANews analysis, this may be due to Fartcoin's market cap already rising to a higher level, with many holding large holders having exited or switched tokens. Due to the inability to track the historical information of specific large holders at a certain time, we cannot draw a definitive conclusion.

However, from the analysis of RFC and DARK, it seems that these two tokens have a relatively similar script.

First, in terms of their K-line chart trends, aside from the difference in creation time, their trends, including pullback patterns, are quite similar.

Additionally, the data on large holders repeatedly holding these two tokens is also quite close, both exceeding 110. In a more detailed analysis, PANews found that there are 75 addresses that simultaneously hold both DARK and RFC, making it the most common combination among large holders. The second most common combination is Fartcoin and House, with 35 addresses holding both tokens.

Further analyzing the timing of large addresses that simultaneously hold RFC and DARK, it was found that most large addresses first purchased these two tokens on April 13 and April 14, respectively.

From the K-line trend perspective, April 13 was the day RFC surged rapidly, with an increase of 65% and a volatility of 107%. On April 14, DARK experienced a similar trend, with an increase of 80% and a volatility of 218%. This significant surge occurring back-to-back seems to resemble a rotation action by the main force.

Distribution date of RFC's main force initial purchases

Distribution date of DARK's main force initial purchases

Of course, it should be noted that RFC's market cap peaked at $138 million, while DARK's highest market cap was only $23 million. It appears that the large holders behind this are not the absolute dominant force in the market, or that the main force has different expectations for these two tokens. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that DARK can replicate RFC's market cap scale.

Additionally, combinations of tokens like Fartcoin, House, or DARK, House also appear frequently among large holders' holdings.

"Artificial Bull" Loves MEME Culture and AI

In the overall data, these overlapping large holders have a total holding amount of approximately $100 million across these seven tokens (excluding holdings from major exchanges like Gate, Bitget, Raydium), accounting for 8.47% of the market cap of these tokens.

As of the early morning of April 16, these tokens generally experienced some pullback. Among them, FAT has pulled back 72.51% from its peak, House has pulled back 50%, and the overall average pullback is about 37.12%. Only ALCH has seen a smaller pullback, as this project is the only one with actual applications related to AI. However, in terms of cycles, ALCH may just happen to be in a phase of market rotation and has not yet entered a selling cycle.

Behind this round of MEME upward movement, there seem to be traces of an artificially created MEME bull market. KOL @MasonCanoe stated on Twitter that the whale addresses driving up RFC are linked to several tokens like TRUMP, VIRTUAL, and LIBRA that previously engaged in market-making activities, and are also connected to several addresses that had early positions in RFC. Based on this, @MasonCanoe believes that the rise of RFC is not coincidental and may signal a carefully planned layout by large funds.

From the data performance, it seems that MEME on the Solana chain is indeed starting to attract market attention again under the push of some whales. However, since this pulling effect does not benefit all MEME tokens, it can only be judged by tracking the real-time dynamics of these main funds. Additionally, from the classification of several tokens, it seems that tokens themed around cats, dogs, and frogs have not managed to secure a place in the recent rise, while tokens related to AI and MEME culture have performed prominently.

Overall, the recent MEME craze on the Solana chain is not a widespread phenomenon but is highly concentrated on a few specific tokens, with Fartcoin attracting a large number of new large holders entering after mid-March. More notably, behind the highly similar trends of RFC and DARK, there are many overlapping large holder addresses, with their main purchase times concentrated around the significant surges on April 13 and 14, strongly suggesting possible coordinated operations or main force rotation behavior. This round of increase does not seem to be purely a spontaneous market behavior, bearing traces of an "artificial bull market," and whether this "artificial rainfall" can evolve into a natural influx of funds remains to be seen.