Tariff policy easing - Fed governor's interest rate cut remarks lead BTC to return to $95,000
Hotcoin Research Market Insights: April 21, 2025 - April 25, 2025Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.94 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.45%, which is $1.87 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $238 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.61%, of which USDT accounts for 61.66%.
This week, BTC's price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $94,734; ETH has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $1,800.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: VIRTUAL with a 7-day increase of 98.2%, BRETT with a 7-day increase of 92.8%, TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 81.1%, and TURBO with a 7-day increase of 122.77%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $3.033 billion; the net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $157 million.
On April 26, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 65 (lower than last week), with this week's sentiment: 2 days of fear, 2 days of neutrality, and 3 days of greed.
Market predictions: This week, there has been a significant increase in the issuance of stablecoins, with large net inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and small net inflows into the Ethereum ETF. Due to the Trump administration's easing stance on high tariffs and the Federal Reserve Board's comments on "possible interest rate cuts," market morale has been greatly boosted, with BTC breaking through $95,000 from $85,000, driven by large buy orders primarily from institutions and listed companies, leading to a rally in altcoins.
The market is currently in a state of greed. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in May is only 3.5%, lower than last week, making a May rate cut unlikely, while a June cut remains quite possible. It is expected that the market will break out after a period of narrow fluctuations, and any positive news for crypto could see BTC return to the $100,000 range.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
On April 19, Du Jun, co-founder of ABCDE, announced on social media that ABCDE has officially ceased new project investments and suspended the fundraising plan for the second phase of its fund;
On April 19, according to the latest CNBC national economic survey, U.S. President Donald Trump faced widespread dissatisfaction regarding his handling of tariffs, inflation, and government spending, with his economic approval rating dropping to the lowest level since taking office;
On April 22, Decrypt reported that the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Paul Atkins, will face 15 applications for altcoin and meme token ETFs, along with the review of over 70 application documents;
On April 23, market news indicated that President Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would not reach 145%, and that tariffs would significantly decrease but not go to zero;
On April 23, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's son, Brandon Lutnick, is leading a financial services company, Cantor, in collaboration with SoftBank, Tether, and crypto trading platform Bitfinex to form a Bitcoin investment consortium exceeding $3 billion;
On April 23, the White House is set to reach a comprehensive agreement with Japan and India to avoid large-scale tariffs, although many tricky details may be left for later discussion;
On April 24, it was officially announced that the top 25 TRUMP holders would be invited to an exclusive reception before the TRUMP dinner, where they would dine with Trump. Additionally, the TRUMP official arranged a special VIP White House tour for these whales the following day;
On April 24, Bitcoin Laws reported that the New Hampshire Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB 302 has passed the Senate Finance Committee vote, with a result of 4 votes in favor and 1 against;
On April 25, the Federal Reserve announced the withdrawal of regulatory guidance on banks' crypto assets and dollar token businesses, while simultaneously updating related business expectation standards. This move aims to ensure that regulatory requirements keep pace with evolving risks and further support innovation in the banking system. On April 25, Raydium released a tweet about an airdrop-related emoji, possibly hinting at an upcoming airdrop.
Macroeconomics
On April 24, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that as unemployment rises, interest rate cuts may commence;
On April 23, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May is 3.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96.5%;
On April 24, Bitcoin News reported that Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company JAN3, met with Japanese Senator Satoshi Hamada to discuss the urgent need for Japan to formulate a national Bitcoin strategy.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 21 to April 25, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $3.033 billion; as of April 25, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.642 billion, currently holding $18.246 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $55.646 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $111.026 billion.
The net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $157 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
The Staking Summit will be held on April 28 and 29, 2025, in Dubai;
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will take place from April 30 to May 1, 2025, in Dubai;
Canada Crypto Week will be held from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
Bitcoin 2025 will be held from May 27 to 29, 2025, in Las Vegas, USA.
Project Progress
The AI on-chain trading and whale tracking platform Delulu will distribute Lulu points, cash vouchers, and other rewards to beta traders before April 29 (for a period of 21 days);
The Arcium public testnet will go live on April 30;
The application window for the Definitive token EDGE will remain open until May 1, 2025;
The AI agent Echos launched by the Cosmos ecosystem liquidity staking protocol Stride will close on May 1, and users need to withdraw funds before the permanent closure on May 1.
Important Events
Cboe Digital, the crypto division of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, plans to launch a new Bitcoin futures product on April 28, currently awaiting regulatory approval. The new trading product, in collaboration with FTSE Russell, will be cash-settled and based on the XBTF index, which is equivalent to one-tenth of the FTSE Bitcoin Index value. It will settle on the last business day of each month;
A Nigerian court has postponed the trial of Binance and its executives for tax evasion until April 30 to allow local tax authorities to respond to the cryptocurrency exchange's request to withdraw the order to serve court documents via email;
The deadline for creditor claims submission for Terraform Labs is May 1, 2025, at 7:59;
According to Techinasia, the crypto investment platform Bake will close its Singapore market and services starting May 1.
Token Unlocking
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.16 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $2.54 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
Renzo (REZ) will unlock 864 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $13.08 million, accounting for 8.64% of the circulating supply;
dYdX (ETHDYDX) will unlock 8.33 million tokens on May 1, valued at approximately $5.64 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply;
Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock 16.64 million tokens on May 2, valued at approximately $45.97 million, accounting for 16.64% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have built a "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly dual updates of "Hotcoin Selected" strategy live broadcasts and "Blockchain Today" daily news briefings, we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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