The investment journey of crypto punks: Differences in confidence and understanding in investment

In Dan Yongping's Q&A, there is a profound statement that describes the difference in understanding a project between investors:

Daring to invest 5% and daring to bet one's entire fortune, the difference in skill between the two is 20 years.

This statement is a bit exaggerated; I think it might be easier to understand if we rephrase it:

Daring to buy with a light position and daring to buy with a heavy position, the difference in understanding of the project is enormous; only the latter can truly reflect an investor's understanding and confidence in the project.

Of course, this is not referring to those gamblers who, after losing heavily in a casino, hope to win it all back by betting their fortune, but rather to the situation of rationally participating in a project under normal circumstances.

The first time I saw this statement, I was reminded of my experience participating in NFTs. Two projects I was involved in formed a stark contrast: one was CryptoPunks, and the other was Bored Apes.

I have previously written about this experience in past articles.

When I first bought CryptoPunks, the entire NFT market had not yet surged; as I recall, Bored Apes had just been released. In that environment, the price of a Punk was already 15 Ethereum.

This price may not seem expensive today, but at that time, it was anything but cheap.

However, in that situation, perhaps due to my usual interest in collecting, I subconsciously sensed the value of Punks and bought in without hesitation.

After buying, I actively recommended it to my friends, suggesting they buy in as well.

That was one of the very few times (if I remember correctly, it should be the only time) I actively recommended a project to my friends. I had never proactively recommended Bitcoin or Ethereum; I would only suggest to close friends when they asked me at what price they could buy in.

Therefore, my understanding and confidence in CryptoPunks at that time could be said to be even greater than that of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In contrast, with Bored Apes, I bought in at around 1 Ethereum, a price much cheaper than Bored Apes, but I had no confidence when buying Bored Apes, nor did I actively recommend it to any friends; I bought it purely with a half-hearted, experimental mindset. Of course, I couldn't go heavy on it.

Perhaps this is the difference in understanding and confidence in the project that leads to the distinction between daring to buy with a light position and a heavy position.

Later, when the entire NFT ecosystem began to collapse, and Bored Apes' focus on gaming proved unviable without finding other development paths, I decided to manage risk by keeping only Mutant Apes and selling all my Bored Apes. At that moment, what I immediately thought of was not converting Bored Apes into stablecoins, but rather converting all my Bored Apes into CryptoPunks.

Looking back now, I subconsciously had much more confidence in Punks than in Bored Apes—despite the fact that at that time, the absolute price of Bored Apes was still much higher than that of Punks (one Bored Ape could barely be exchanged for two Punks).

Since then, I have hardly paid attention to Punks and rarely checked their floor price, but I have never worried about them going to zero, nor have I worried about them not appreciating in the future.

Hearing again about the widespread discussions that Punks are rising in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with a slew of new Bitcoin NFT projects emerging rapidly, prices rising daily, all claiming to surpass Punks.

But now the price of CryptoPunks is 42 ETH ($77,000).

And the prices of those emerging Bitcoin NFTs:

The top-ranked Taproot Wizards is only 0.15 BTC ($17,000).

Once popular projects like CryptoKitties and Node Monkeys are priced at less than 0.05 BTC ($4,000), not even reaching a fraction of a Punk's price.

Bored Apes still dominate the Ethereum NFT market, but they are only 14 ETH ($25,000). Once, a Bored Ape surpassed a Punk, but now it is only a third of a Punk's price.

Reflecting on this, from an investment rather than a speculative mindset, it seems that the only three projects I have heavily invested in and can ignore market fluctuations while holding are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and CryptoPunks.

This Saturday (May 10) at 7:30 PM, we will have an online discussion. Everyone can leave their questions at the link below.

https://x.com/Dao_Views/status/1919577184945004559