CITIC Securities: Still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than 2 times this year

ChainCatcher news, CITIC Securities research report states that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May 2025 will maintain the policy interest rate unchanged, with the meeting statement emphasizing "increased uncertainty." Powell's speech revolved around the words "uncertain" and "wait and see," seemingly providing little incremental information. However, based on our analysis framework of "transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty," current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations correspond to a reduction in rate cut expectations.

We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates no more than 2 times this year and anticipate that the June Federal Reserve meeting will keep the policy interest rate unchanged. On the market side, the bland meeting did not stir much turbulence, and we expect the market to continue trading around Trump's tariff policy in the short term. The forex market remains bearish on the dollar, and the outlook for U.S. stocks is still unclear, with expectations of maintaining high volatility in the short term.