Even if the Federal Reserve firmly does not cut interest rates, BTC is expected to rise after returning to 100,000 since January
|Hotcoin Research Market Insights: May 5, 2025Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.23 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.51%, which is $2.05 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $242.7 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.04%, of which USDT accounts for 61.96%.
This week, BTC's price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $103,158; ETH has also shown a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $2,335.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: PNUT with a 7-day increase of 93.83%, MOG with a 7-day increase of 71.4%, PEPE with a 7-day increase of 45.43%, and WIF with a 7-day increase of 32.29%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $919.3 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $38.2 million.
On May 10, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 70 (higher than last week), with this week's sentiment: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.
Market Predictions:
This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, with significant inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and minor net outflows from Ethereum ETFs. Due to Trump's declaration of easing tariffs, even though the Federal Reserve firmly believes it is not the right time to cut interest rates, BTC surged from $97,000 to break through $104,000. However, on-chain data shows that after breaking $100,000, profit-taking addresses began to take profits. If BTC wants to break through its previous high, it still needs the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and a large influx of funds. Notably, fundamentally strong altcoin projects have seen significant increases this week.
The market remains in a greedy sentiment. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 17.1%, lower than last week, making a June rate cut unlikely; we will have to see if there will be a cut in July. With most countries globally adopting quantitative easing policies, several U.S. states passing Bitcoin strategic reserve bills, and some global listed companies actively "competing for Bitcoin," the outlook for the market in 2025 remains optimistic. However, summer may lead to liquidity shortages, so partial profit-taking is recommended.
Understanding the Present
Review of Major Events of the Week
On May 6, according to CNBC, Trump arranged two cryptocurrency-themed dinners this month—one for wealthy political donors and another for "Meme coin" millionaires;
On May 6, according to Nansen data, the top five public chains by active addresses in the past 7 days were: Solana (24.215 million), Tron (5.851 million), Base (5.42 million), BNB Chain (5.243 million), and Aptos (4.889 million);
On May 8, payment service provider Stripe announced the launch of stablecoin financial accounts, allowing users to send and receive funds through fiat and cryptocurrency channels, now covering 101 countries/regions;
On May 7, Vaulta (formerly EOS) announced that EOS tokens will be swapped for $A on May 14, supporting a 1:1 frictionless exchange with no changes to token economics;
On May 7, market data showed that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has continued to rise since March 26, currently reported at 65.4%, setting a new high for this bull market;
On May 7, Coindesk reported that Visa (V), a global payment service provider, made a strategic investment in the startup BVNK, which is building a payment infrastructure based on stablecoins, reflecting the trend of traditional financial companies entering blockchain-driven currency flows;
On May 7, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional investment of $53.4 million to acquire 555 BTC;
On May 9, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini received regulatory approval to expand cryptocurrency derivatives trading in Europe. Gemini has obtained a MiFID II license from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), allowing the exchange to offer cryptocurrency derivatives in the EU. The derivatives to be launched in the EU and European Economic Area will include perpetual futures and other derivatives, which advanced users of Gemini can utilize;
On May 9, according to a statement released on Thursday, Bitcoin miners MARA and CleanSpark both saw revenue growth in the first quarter of this year, increasing by 30% and 63%, respectively.
Macroeconomics
On May 3, Buffett stated that investments in Japan fully align with their investment philosophy and that they will not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade;
On May 7, U.S. President Trump stated, "We may renegotiate the USMCA. We will maintain a friendly relationship with Canada. I respect Canadians";
On May 7, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced at a press conference that the reserve requirement ratio would be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, and that the policy interest rate would be reduced by 0.1 percentage points;
On May 8, U.S. President Trump stated: "I believe the 10% tariff floor has been set. The 10% benchmark rate for the UK is not a template for other countries. 10% is a very low number; other countries may be higher";
On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in response to a question that President Trump's request for a rate cut would not affect the Federal Reserve's work;
On May 8, the Federal Reserve maintained the May benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, holding steady for the third consecutive meeting;
On May 9, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is 17.1%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 82.9%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 5 to May 9, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $919.3 million; as of May 9, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.872 billion, currently holding $19.542 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.108 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $123.258 billion.
The net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $38.2 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
Canada Crypto Week will be held from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
ETHWomen will take place on May 13, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
ULTILAND will host an offline event themed "A Star Is Born - AI x ARTFi x RWA" on May 15, Thursday, at 3:00 PM in Hong Kong, Central Trading Plaza 3;
Bitcoin 2025 will be held from May 27 to 29, 2025, in Las Vegas, USA;
NFT NYC 2026 will take place from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;
Permissionless IV will be held from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA.
Project Progress
VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF called "NODE" on May 14. This ETF will invest in 30 to 60 stocks related to the digital asset economy, including investments in cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin mining companies, and data centers;
NEAR's proposal for a chain-abstract relayer is open for applications until May 15. This RFP aims to build a chain-abstract relayer infrastructure, allowing developers to seamlessly sponsor gas fees or let users pay transaction fees across multiple blockchains, accepting base tokens (such as ETH, SOL) and mainstream stablecoins (USDT/USDC) as gas deposits;
The distributed validation infrastructure Obol will have its TGE on May 15.
Important Events
- Galaxy plans to go public on Nasdaq on May 16.
Token Unlocks
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 152 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $27.69 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply;
Cyber (CYBER) will unlock 4.23 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $6.2 million, accounting for 4.23% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $56.01 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $16.2 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 46.39 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $58.54 million, accounting for 4.64% of the circulating supply;
Apecoin (APE) will unlock 13.34 million tokens on May 17, valued at approximately $9.9 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply.
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