HTX DeepThink: Is a rotation market emerging? Crypto credit and InfoFi may become the new focus

In late May, the cryptocurrency market continued its strong performance supported by a recovery in macro liquidity. Bitcoin demonstrated good resilience, with on-chain capital structure continuously optimizing and market risk appetite gradually increasing. High Beta assets and quality altcoins began to attract incremental attention, with signs of rotation becoming increasingly evident. This issue of HTX Research Chloe (@++ChloeTalk1++) focuses on the crypto credit and InfoFi sectors, analyzing their potential and structural value in the new phase.

Structural Evolution Under Macro Support: Bitcoin Steady, Altcoin Season Gearing Up

As of May 21, 2025, the Federal Reserve's net liquidity rose to 6022.869, having rebounded strongly from the low point at the beginning of the month. Although it has not yet reached the key central range of 6100-6200, this trend has initially released signals of liquidity recovery, providing macro support for the cryptocurrency market.

Despite last week's cold reception for long-term government bond auctions in the U.S. and Japan—where the U.S. 20-year Treasury yield surged above 5% and Japan's long-term rates hit a 25-year high—leading to heightened concerns about global liquidity tightening, the U.S. Treasury still primarily absorbs funds through 3-6 month T-Bills, mainly "draining" money market funds rather than risk assets. The Federal Reserve can also pause balance sheet reduction or activate the repo window at any time, limiting the pressure on risk assets.

As a result, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience: spot ETFs have continued to see slight net inflows, over 70% of Bitcoin on-chain has been held for more than six months, and exchange balances continue to decrease, with funds from Asia and the Middle East buying on dips. Even if net financing of U.S. Treasuries could soar to $1.25 trillion during the July-September period, the combination of short-term bond issuance and repo support has weakened the direct draining pressure on high Beta assets. Coupled with passive ETF holdings and the dilution of "hard chips" selling pressure, along with expectations of dollar depreciation, Bitcoin remains strong.

From on-chain data, the activity of public chains like Solana and Base continues to rise, with funds gradually shifting from Bitcoin-dominated safe-haven assets to the high Beta altcoin market. BTC Dominance remains high and has not seen a significant drop, but if it falls below 52% in the near future, combined with further liquidity increases, it may officially signal the start of a new altcoin season.

Current Potential Track Analysis

Wall Street Doubles Down on Crypto Credit, Maple ($SYRUP) Becomes Institutional Funding Stronghold

Cantor Fitzgerald has launched a Bitcoin collateralized credit program with a total scale of $2 billion, with the first batch of supported entities including crypto broker FalconX and decentralized credit protocol Maple Finance, marking a significant entry of Wall Street capital into the crypto credit market. Among them, FalconX has already withdrawn over $100 million under this framework, and Maple has completed its first loan issuance.

The project token $SYRUP has launched spot and contract trading as well as earning products on Huobi HTX, with spot trading seeing a 110% increase since its launch, and contracts performing well, indicating market recognition. Maple's newly launched syrupUSDC/USDT perpetual institutional credit pool offers an annualized return of 8-12%, with a highly transparent collateral rate, quickly attracting a large amount of idle stablecoins from institutions. This month, TVL has surged from $800 million to $1.3 billion—market "voting with their feet" validates the attractiveness and potential growth of the SYRUP model.

InfoFi Rising Star, $COOKIE Expected to Ignite Next Valuation Reassessment Cycle

Based on current on-chain and macro liquidity data, $COOKIE's layout in the InfoFi sector is on the verge of explosive potential. Compared to similarly positioned Kaito in the market, CookieDotFun's current market cap is only one-fifth of Kaito's. Once InfoFi mechanisms like Cookie leaderboard and advertising bidding begin to monetize, $COOKIE's market cap is expected to rise significantly, possessing revaluation potential. Currently, Huobi HTX has launched COOKIE/USDT contract trading, and KAITO, previously introduced in the HTX DeepThink column, has also launched on Huobi HTX, with a near 30-day increase of 138%.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice and does not represent any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.

About HTX DeepThink

HTX DeepThink is a dedicated insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, injecting new thinking power into the market, helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.