U.S. April core PCE meets expectations - DJT raises $2.5 billion to buy Bitcoin | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: May 26, 2025
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows, breaking the trend of net inflows for several weeks, while the Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows.Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, valued at $2.06 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $247.3 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.56%, of which USDT accounts for 62.14%.
This week, BTC's price has shown a downward trend, currently priced at $104,851; ETH has shown range fluctuations, currently priced at $2,619.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion has risen while most have fallen, including: SPX with a 7-day increase of 26.24%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 133.19%, WCT with a 7-day increase of 97.2%, and SNT with a 7-day increase of 84.9%.
This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $145 million; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $285.8 million.
On May 30, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 61 (higher than last week), indicating a sentiment of: 7 days of greed.
Market Forecast:
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs breaking a multi-week trend of net inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows. After reaching a new high last week, profit-taking addresses began to realize gains, resulting in a 7-day decline of 3.73%. The RSI index is at 30.63, indicating weakness, while the altcoin season index is at 18. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for April was announced at 2.5%, in line with expectations. The Fear & Greed Index has returned to neutral.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 2.2%. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to have a significant impact on the market; typically, after Bitcoin breaks a new high, the price tends to pull back, which is normal. It is expected that Bitcoin will fluctuate around $95,000 to $105,000 in the coming week, with a focus on ETF inflows and the latest tariff policies from the Trump administration.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On May 27, according to pymnts, stablecoin issuer Circle denied a media report stating that Circle was in informal potential sale talks with Coinbase Global or Ripple, while still advancing its IPO plan submitted in April;
On May 27, Cetus officially released a report on a theft incident, stating that on May 22, Cetus suffered a sophisticated smart contract attack targeting the CLMM liquidity pool. Cetus has taken immediate measures to mitigate the impact;
On May 27, according to Bloomberg, the Trump Media Technology Group announced it would launch a Bitcoin treasury plan worth approximately $2.5 billion, incorporating BTC into its asset reserves for financial stability and long-term value storage.
On May 28, Circle's IPO documents revealed that it acquired RWA issuer Hashnote for $9.9 million in cash and approximately 2.9 million shares of fully vested common stock (total value approximately $99.8 million) in January 2025;
On May 29, U.S. Vice President Vance stated during a speech at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that approximately 50 million Americans hold Bitcoin, and he believes this number will soon increase to 100 million.
On May 29, according to Decrypt, stablecoin USDC issuer Circle recently froze two Solana wallet addresses related to the LIBRA token team, involving approximately 58 million USDC;
On May 29, on-chain detective ZackXBT revealed that the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group launched a cyber attack against individual cryptocurrency traders on May 24, stealing over $5.2 million in assets from one trader;
On May 29, according to Bloomberg, BlackRock plans to subscribe for 10% of Circle Internet's IPO shares;
On May 29, White House officials confirmed that the news of Musk leaving the government is true, and his departure process will begin tonight local time;
On May 30, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's corporate finance division clarified that staking activities on certain proof-of-stake blockchains do not constitute securities trading;
On May 30, according to The Block, the SEC has submitted documents to the court requesting the dismissal of the lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao;
On May 30, mobility service provider Webus International Limited is exploring a financing strategy of up to $300 million to establish an XRP reserve to support its global payment solutions through diversified non-equity financing tools.
Macroeconomics
On May 29, around 6 PM ET on May 28, the U.S. State Department issued a statement saying it would work with the Department of Homeland Security to begin revoking visas for Chinese students, including those studying in key fields;
On May 30, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that after a brief period of strength at the beginning of the year, the inflation rate continues to decline slowly, in line with the Fed's predictions from last year;
On May 30, the U.S. April core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.5%, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.60% to 2.7%;
On May 31, according to CNN, Trump is currently not considering re-imposing a 145% tariff on Chinese products;
On May 31, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June is 2.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 26 to May 30, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $145 million; as of May 30, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.168 billion, currently holding $19.425 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.468 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $131.289 billion.
The net inflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $285.8 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
YZi Labs' newly launched offline incubation program EASY Residency will kick off on June 2 in Silicon Valley, designed for the top 1% of founders in Web3, AI, and healthcare;
The Non-Fungible Conference 2025 will be held from June 4 to 6, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal;
NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;
Permissionless IV will be held from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA;
EthCC 8 will be held from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Cannes, France.
Project Progress
- Moonbeam's lease on the Polkadot parachain will end on June 5, 2025.
Important Events
On June 2, Fed Governor Waller will speak on economic prospects at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference;
On June 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting;
On June 4, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision;
On June 5, the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions;
On June 5, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.
Token Unlocks
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on June 2 at 15:00, valued at approximately $15.93 million, accounting for 0.7% of the circulating supply.
Gravity (G) will unlock 121 million tokens on June 5, valued at approximately $1.57 million, accounting for 1.01% of the circulating supply;
Alchemy Pay (ACH) will unlock 116 million tokens on June 7, valued at approximately $2.47 million, accounting for 1.17% of the circulating supply;
Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on June 7, valued at approximately $18.33 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply;
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock 1.46 million tokens on June 8, valued at approximately $29.75 million, accounting for 1.46% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We build a "trend assessment + value discovery + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluations of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly live strategy sessions of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news briefings of "Blockchain Today," we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors make investments based on a thorough understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
