Voting is trading: Understand the social prediction market Upside on the Base chain in one article | CryptoSeed

Author: Daisy, ChainCatcher

Editor: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Social Prediction Platform Based on Base

Upside is a social prediction market built on the Base blockchain network, with its core mechanism centered around the trends of social content dissemination. Users can upload links they believe have "viral" potential, such as tweets, articles, or videos, and the platform will create an independent market around that link. Other users can participate in predictions by purchasing "votes," determining whether the content will spread widely.

The "vote" action requires payment in USDC stablecoin, with an initial price of $0.01, and a maximum issuance of 1 million votes, with the price dynamically increasing based on purchase volume. Users can either hold votes for appreciation or sell them midway for profit. All transactions are recorded on-chain, ensuring transparency and traceability.

The platform implements a "unique link market" system, where the same content cannot be created multiple times. The first uploader enjoys exclusive creation rights, effectively incentivizing early discovery of content. Each quality market will receive rewards from the platform's "prediction pool," distributed proportionally to link uploaders, original content creators, and vote participants, with rewards given in USDC.

Mechanism Design and Incentive Structure

Compared to traditional prediction markets that focus on objective outcomes, such as Polymarket, Upside's mechanism is based on the subjective trend of content popularity, aligning more closely with the logic and judgment of users in the social media environment. It does not judge "whether an event occurs," but rather "which content may go viral."

Upside is based on the "unique link market" mechanism, where each social link can only create one market, avoiding redundant competition and providing clear incentives for content discoverers. This model differs from content ownership-based protocols like Zora, which emphasize uploading and holding content, while Upside does not require users to migrate or host original content, focusing instead on speculation rather than ownership.

The platform has set up diversified revenue paths, with all rewards distributed in USDC, covering five main user roles:

• Curators: If the uploaded link receives the most votes in a round, they earn 5% of the prediction pool reward;
• Voters: Holders of votes in that market share 80% of the rewards, distributed according to their voting proportion;
• Traders: Earn price differences by buying low and selling high on votes, with no fees currently charged by the platform;
• Inviters: After inviting users, they can earn 50% of the protocol fees generated by those users within the first 50 days;
• Creators: If the original content becomes a winning market, they receive 15% of the prediction pool reward.

It is noteworthy that a single piece of content can consecutively become a winning market in multiple prediction rounds, allowing related participants to continuously earn rewards.

On the execution level, Upside prevents manipulation through mechanisms such as on-chain records, minimum funding thresholds, and a five-minute settlement delay. All functions operate on the Base network, which has low transaction costs and high processing efficiency. The user participation threshold is low, requiring only the pasting of a link to create or join a market, currently supporting content primarily from X (formerly Twitter), with potential future expansion to more platforms.

Team Background and Development Progress

As of now, Upside has not disclosed information about its core development team.

The platform went live on June 10, 2025, and is currently in the invitation code registration phase, with a limited number of users primarily concentrated in the crypto community. Some users have reported issues such as registration delays or content verification failures during peak times.

According to wellfound information, Upside completed a seed pre-round financing of $1.2 million in December 2024, with a valuation of $10 million. Specific investors, equity structure, and agreement details have not been made public, nor has an official press release been issued.

From the current functionality, the platform has established core mechanisms for market creation, trading, pricing, and incentive distribution, with potential future expansions for community features such as leaderboards and historical records. Overall, it remains in the early stages of product development, with mechanisms and functionalities undergoing continuous iteration.

This article only introduces an early-stage project and does not constitute investment advice.