A new survey of former Federal Reserve insiders shows that the interest rate outlook is becoming moderately conservative

ChainCatcher message, collected by former Wall Street Journal economic reporter Jon Hilsenrath, shows that former Federal Reserve officials and staff expect the unemployment rate and inflation to rise in the coming months, which could complicate the Fed's judgment on interest rate decisions. Respondents indicated that they expect the Fed to maintain expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, although many former officials believe that cutting rates only once or even not at all may be more appropriate.

The release of this survey's results comes just as the Fed is set to hold a policy meeting this week, during which Fed officials will unveil economic forecasts. This will be the first time the Fed has released economic forecasts since Trump announced a broad import tariff policy. The federal budget bill currently moving through Congress may also become one of the important considerations for the Fed's decision-making this week.