The ups and downs of the virtual ecosystem: a "touchstone" for short-term declines and long-term value?

Recently, many participants in the Virtual ecosystem have been comparing the prices of some well-known popular projects when they first launched to their current prices:

A considerable number of projects have seen their prices drop by 30%, 40%, or even 50%.

This result has led many participants to become pessimistic.

In my view, this outcome is not surprising at all.

Many of these projects have not even released a mature product or have only a product with a very small customer base. When such projects launch, a tenfold or even hundredfold increase in price is certainly inflated. Once the initial excitement fades, if there is no significant progress in the product, a price drop is entirely normal.

These products have only been around for a month or two since their token issuance; how could there be any significant progress?

Therefore, this price drop is not closely related to the projects themselves; it merely reflects a normal market return after the initial excitement dissipates.

In my opinion, the real test has yet to come.

As I shared in previous articles, the real test will arrive in six months at the earliest, or three months at the quickest.

Because at that time, people will have to look at the results: since the Genesis Launches, have any of the successfully funded AI Agents produced a project comparable to AIXBT?

If there is even one, then this test can be considered temporarily passed, and the development of the Virtual ecosystem will usher in another wave of growth; otherwise, the team will face difficult challenges.

As for the market performance leading to a shift in participants' emotions from optimism to pessimism, that is also quite normal.

Since this is an ecosystem that allows participation without permission, there will inevitably be a portion (possibly even the vast majority) of participants who only focus on short-term price fluctuations.

Not to mention the Virtual ecosystem, even among Bitcoin holders, the vast majority are like this. Let's wait until Bitcoin enters a bear market, and a large number of Bitcoin holders will also become pessimistic and desperate.

The expression of these emotions is secondary, but like every project during a downturn, some community members will express their emotions by offering various suggestions to the project.

However, many of these suggestions focus on how to boost the project's price in the short term.

This immediately reminds me of Ethereum a few months ago.

At that time, the sentiment in the Ethereum ecosystem had hit rock bottom, and the community was similarly filled with various emotions and offered numerous opinions. So, in an article, I wrote that my biggest concern was not Ethereum's future, but rather whether Vitalik could withstand the "pressure" from some community members and not change the core of Ethereum.

Because only a few of those opinions were areas where Ethereum should improve, while most of the "pressure" suggestions would lead Ethereum astray or even undermine its foundation.

The current Virtual ecosystem is facing a similar situation:

Only a small portion of the suggestions in the community are beneficial for the long-term development of the project and the ecosystem, while most focus on short-term effects, or are simply emotional outbursts.

In reality, the price of any project fluctuates up and down most of the time, and the moments of breakthrough and significant increases are very brief. In any ecosystem, the vast majority of projects ultimately end in failure, with only a few surviving until the end.

The projects launched at Genesis Launches are no exception. It is likely that over 90% of these projects will end in failure, and even the remaining 10% that eventually succeed will experience fluctuations, even significant ones, most of the time.

So, the current large price fluctuations of these projects are entirely normal.

For short-term traders, it is normal to take profits and exit. But for long-term participants, I believe it is more important to focus on the project's development itself and to give the project more time to mature.

For the Virtual team, I think it is more important to quickly launch and iterate the ACP protocol, in addition to optimizing certain existing mechanisms.

I believe that if the ACP protocol can succeed, it is the most likely key to pull this ecosystem out of emotional and speculative turmoil, becoming a real creator of value and innovative applications—I do not want this team to be disturbed by short-sighted opinions, nor do I want them to lose sight of more important construction content due to such opinions.

My purpose in participating in these projects is to see what level of substantial progress can be achieved, which is at least a matter of a few months; I am not too concerned about price fluctuations before any substantial progress is made.

Duang Yongping often says in his Q&A sessions: do difficult and correct things.

This is very challenging for any entrepreneur. But only by doing so can a great team and a great project be achieved.

A good project and team are very rare, and whenever I discover a project and team with such potential in the ecosystem, I sincerely hope they can persist in doing difficult and correct things.