The U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the U.S. stock market may experience significant fluctuations as a result

2025-07-03 13:03:40

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ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan's trading department simulation shows that if the employment data released on Thursday is similar to the weak trend of the earlier ADP report, the U.S. stock market is likely to experience a significant sell-off.

JPMorgan has set different scenarios for market reactions: an increase of 85,000 to 105,000: the S&P 500 index may drop by 0.25% to 1.5%; below 85,000: the S&P 500 index could plummet by 2% to 3%; the report warns: "In the worst-case scenario, the market will face the risk of stagflation (weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation), at which point both fiscal and monetary policies may be powerless."

The report specifically points out: "As long as non-farm data is above 100,000, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, employment data has also exceeded expectations in the past and may do so again. JPMorgan predicts: an increase of 125,000 to 145,000: the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.75% to 1.25%; exceeding 145,000: the S&P 500 index's gains could expand to 1% to 1.5%. (Jin Shi)

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U.S. non-farm data U.S. stocks

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