Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted. This shift reflects some early signs that tariff-related inflation is milder than expected, while deflationary forces—including slowing wage growth and weakening demand—are taking shape.

The bank's chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, estimates that the probability of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50%, expecting cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two more cuts anticipated in early 2026. Goldman Sachs also lowered its terminal rate forecast from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25%.