Author: Top.one

I. Musk Flips the Table: "If This Passes, I'll Start a Party!"

On June 30, the U.S. Senate began a marathon "voting battle" on the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (commonly known as the "Beautiful Bill"), aiming to complete final legislation by July 4, Independence Day. This bill spans thousands of pages and integrates tax cuts, increased spending, and immigration control, widely interpreted by the market as the "prelude to fiscal easing" by the Trump administration.

The loudest opposition comes from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He angrily posted on X platform, stating: "If this crazy spending bill passes, the 'America Party' will be established the next day!" He condemned the bill for increasing the national debt by $3.3 trillion, calling it a "betrayal" of America's future.

Musk accused both the Democratic and Republican parties of having become "fiscal conspirators," "pretending to oppose each other while actually co-governing," and argued that America needs a third party that can truly represent the people's voice. He also threatened to "take down all the lawmakers who support this bill" in the next primary elections, even if it would be "the last thing he does in his life."

II. Crypto Tax Reform "Sneaks into the Package": Has the U.S. Treasury Found New Targets?

While Musk was flipping tables, the crypto industry welcomed significant benefits amidst this political storm. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing to include a series of cryptocurrency tax reduction provisions in the "Beautiful Bill," making it the most talked-about "hidden amendment" in the legislation.

According to Lummis's proposal, the bill will:

• Exempt small transactions from taxes: Each crypto transaction under $300 will be exempt from capital gains tax, with an annual total limit of $5,000;

• Delay taxation on mining and staking income: Assets generated from mining, staking, and airdrops will not be taxed until sold;

• Exclude crypto lending from taxable income: Most crypto lending transactions will not count as taxable income for the current period;

• Introduce a 30-day wash sale rule: To prevent tax avoidance through "selling at a loss and then repurchasing."

This means that while the U.S. government loudly proclaims a deficit crisis, it is simultaneously giving the green light for tax reductions on digital assets. The deeper implication may be that to promote the development of dollar stablecoins and attract more on-chain dollar circulation, the government must first eliminate tax obstacles for users and businesses, creating a "on-chain dollar-friendly environment."

III. The Real Calculation Behind Stablecoins: The "Financing Loop" of Digital U.S. Debt

More strategically significant is the possibility that the "Beautiful Bill" hides a carefully designed digital upgrade plan for dollar hegemony.

Combined with the previously introduced GENIUS Act (which mandates that stablecoins be 100% backed by cash or U.S. Treasury bonds), the "Beautiful Bill" actually attempts to construct a new fiscal loop:

$1 user buys → $1 stablecoin issued → $1 buys U.S. Treasuries → U.S. Treasuries provide government financing

According to Deutsche Bank's predictions, by 2028, the global stablecoin market value could reach $2 trillion, with over 80% flowing into the U.S. Treasury market, becoming a new "hidden buyer" for U.S. finances.

Stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle have quietly become the top ten holders of U.S. Treasuries globally, with Tether net purchasing $33.1 billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2024, surpassing Belgium and Saudi Arabia. Stablecoins are becoming an important tool for U.S. debt financing.

IV. Concerns Over Decentralized Finance and Monetary Independence

However, this seemingly "digital easing" plan also plants three time bombs:

1. Risk of simultaneous price collapse for U.S. Treasuries and stablecoins: If users collectively redeem USDT, the issuer will be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries for liquidity, potentially triggering a sell-off in the Treasury market.

2. Amplified on-chain leverage risk: Leverage and borrowing in DeFi rely on stablecoin assets; if the underlying assets significantly devalue, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.

3. Weakening of Federal Reserve policy independence: If fiscal deficits rely on stablecoin funding, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be "hollowed out" by fiscal demands.

Musk's opposition to the "Beautiful Bill" is not merely a political stance but rather a deep-seated vigilance against this fiscal-crypto linkage mechanism. On one hand, there is anger over fiscal mismanagement, and on the other, concern that such operations will truly decentralize the "printing power" to privately issued stablecoin systems.

V. Accelerating Global Game: The Triangle Balance of U.S. Debt, Currency, and the Crypto World

The U.S. government is attempting to reshape dollar hegemony through "easing + chain reform," while three major response camps are emerging globally:

• Proponents of dollar digitalization (e.g., citizens of Argentina and Turkey using USDT to combat inflation);

• Decoupling acceleration camp (e.g., BRICS countries promoting local currency settlement systems);

• Fragmented stablecoin landscape (the EU is promoting compliant issuance of euro stablecoins to challenge USDT's monopoly).

It can be said that the "Beautiful Bill" is not just a fiscal gamble within the U.S., but may also be the starting gun for the global competition for digital dollar hegemony.

Conclusion: A Spring for Crypto? Or Just a Disguise for the Dollar?

Musk's anger is a counterattack against "fiscal illusions." The "tax reduction benefits" for the crypto industry may just be the "sugar-coated shell" thrown by U.S. finances to bind the crypto world.

Whether investors, entrepreneurs, or policymakers, we must see through the essence of this financial experiment: cryptocurrencies are no longer just marginal innovations but have been pulled into the core battlefield of global financial geopolitics.