The Value and Price of Ethereum

Last Saturday's online communication reached the interactive session, and I tried for more than ten minutes but was unable to add the audience members who wished to speak. During this time, I also sent speaking invitations to a few audience members but received no replies. It is likely that there was a problem with my network, so I ended the communication.

I had originally considered using other commonly used online tools in China for the communication, but given that the topics we were discussing currently lack a clear positioning and carry significant risks, and I also didn't want to be too formal during the exchange, I decided against that option and could only choose Twitter.

However, the last two Twitter communications encountered various issues, and it seems that this tool is not very user-friendly. As for what to do in the future, I will think about it.

In the next few articles, I will select some important questions from readers' inquiries and share them in detail.

In the readers' comments, one reader asked the following question:

The U.S. is set to issue a large amount of stablecoins, most likely within the Ethereum ecosystem. Why hasn't the price of Ethereum shown any improvement?

The core of this question is about measuring a project's value and the value of certain positive developments during its advancement based on short-term price fluctuations.

I also pay attention to a project's price, but I do not look at a project's short-term price and will not use its short-term price fluctuations to measure its current value or whether a certain positive development is valuable.

What is short-term price?

Whether it goes up or down tomorrow, whether it goes up or down next week, whether it goes up or down next month, in my view, all of these are short-term prices.

Countless cases have proven that the market's short-term performance is often irrational. I will try to eliminate the influence of this irrationality on my emotions and will try to ignore or utilize this irrationality.

The market's short-term irrationality cannot reflect a project's value, nor can it directly feedback the project's price. This is very normal; the market is like this most of the time.

But in the long term, the market will certainly reflect a project's value and price at some point.

How long is this "long term"?

I remember sharing in a previous article:

Duan Yongping consulted Buffett on this issue, and his own experience is about 3 to 4 years.

In other words, if a project truly has substantial positive developments, at most in 3 to 4 years, this positive development will definitely be reflected in the price.

I am currently using Duan Yongping's method to ignore the fluctuations of the market's short-term prices.

Since short-term price fluctuations distort the true value of a project, what truly supports the real value of a project?

It is the project's fundamentals.

So now I only focus on a project's fundamentals and information related to the fundamentals, and I rarely look at the project's daily price.

If we measure Ethereum from the perspective of fundamentals and related information, the news mentioned above, as well as some recent companies on Wall Street starting to publicly purchase Ethereum, are undoubtedly positive for Ethereum.

Tom Lee recently had an interview with CNBC. In this interview, I felt that many of his statements were aimed at Wall Street, urging them to buy Ethereum; I took it as an advertisement. However, there was one statement that I found very practical and reasonable.

That is, he believes that banks will buy Ethereum in the future.

Because it is likely that a large number of banks and financial institutions will issue stablecoins and conduct related businesses (such as RWA) on the Ethereum ecosystem. For example, there are now reports that Deutsche Bank is testing Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling based on ZK technology.

If these banks are to issue stablecoins or conduct business on Ethereum and its related ecosystem, they will inevitably pay attention to the security of Ethereum and its ecosystem. The most direct way to ensure the security of Ethereum and its ecosystem is to purchase Ethereum and become a node to participate in the maintenance of network security.

All of these are positive for Ethereum's fundamentals. If we believe that these positives will be realized by the market, then we need not worry about Ethereum's future price.

As for when this price will be realized, let's be patient; I believe it won't take 3 or 4 years, but don't expect it next week or next month.