TL;DR

• In August 2025, the U.S. economy is at a delicate turning point with inflation above target but marginally slowing, significant weakening in employment momentum, and declining consumer confidence. The market generally bets that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate cut in September to address the combination risk of "easing inflation + weakening employment." However, international geopolitical friction and uncertainty in domestic policy transparency still pose significant constraints on investor confidence and market risk appetite.

• The popular projects launched in August are mainly concentrated in the infrastructure and DeFi sectors, with representative projects like PROVE, TOWNS, and TREE already listed on more than ten mainstream exchanges, showing high liquidity and market recognition. Meanwhile, Kanye West's personal MEME token YZY saw its market cap briefly exceed $3 billion but then quickly fell back, experiencing significant volatility.

• Bitcoin (BTC) hovers below the key support level of $110,530, with strong bearish pressure. If it breaks this level, it may test the $105,000--$100,000 range; conversely, if it breaks above $117,500, it could enter a wide range consolidation. Ethereum (ETH) fell back to $4,424 after reaching a new high of $4,956, with key support at $4,349. A rebound could target $5,000--$5,500, while institutional funds continue to flow into ETH, indicating a shift in capital preference. Solana (SOL) is consolidating around $188, forming an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout above $210 could initiate a new rally to $240--$265, but a drop below the trendline may lead to a pullback to $155.

• In August, Ethereum broke its historical high driven by both treasury and ETF factors, with prices touching $4,945 and market cap nearing $600 billion. The treasury is gradually shifting towards a "holding + monetization" model, further strengthening its core asset status. In the same month, WLFI launched pre-contract trading, with FDV briefly reaching $26 billion, quickly attracting market attention through strict unlocking mechanisms and multi-ecosystem integration with stablecoin USD1, but also amplifying speculation and volatility. Additionally, Pendle launched the Boros funding rate derivatives platform on Arbitrum, standardizing and tokenizing funding rates, with first-day trading volume exceeding $36 million, pushing Pendle's TVL to a new high, showcasing significant market potential.

• The Solana ecosystem is seeing an increase in reserve-type institutions, with Galaxy Digital, Multicoin, Jump Crypto, and Pantera planning to raise billions to accumulate SOL, enhancing market liquidity and ecological expansion potential. Meanwhile, Uniswap submitted the DUNI proposal to register the DAO as DUNA in Wyoming and establish a new entity, providing legal identity and off-chain operational capabilities for governance, promoting the compliance process of DeFi and enhancing UNI's value capture ability.

1. Macroeconomic Perspective

In August 2025, the U.S. macroeconomy remains in a situation where "inflation is still above target, and growth momentum continues to weaken." Overall inflation has not shown a significant decline, but market expectations for future easing are gradually increasing. At the same time, the labor market is marginally weakening, and consumer confidence is declining, leading the market to bet that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate cut path in the fall. International geopolitical risks and domestic policy uncertainties continue to constrain investor confidence and market risk appetite.

Inflation remains above target

From an inflation perspective, the July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June; core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, higher than last month's 2.9%. Price pressures in service sectors such as housing, healthcare, and transportation are significant, while a slight decline in energy prices offsets some of the increases. Overall, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but the market generally expects a marginal decline in August, providing conditions for monetary policy easing. Several Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need to see more data to confirm the sustainability of the inflation decline.

Labor market weakens

In July, non-farm employment added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Since August, initial jobless claims have increased to 235,000, the highest since June, and the number of continuing claims has also risen to 1.97 million. These data indicate that the labor market is gradually weakening, with declining employment confidence.

Weak consumer rebound

In terms of consumption, high interest rates and rising credit costs continue to suppress residents' willingness to consume. In August, the consumer confidence index further declined, with the University of Michigan index dropping to 58.6 and the Conference Board index falling to 97.4, both indicating increased household concerns about future income and employment prospects. Retail and some online consumption have seen mild rebounds, but overall spending remains weak, with insufficient recovery in demand for travel, accommodation, and durable goods. Consumption has not experienced a cliff-like drop but lacks resilience.

Interest rate policy shift imminent

In terms of monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged the weakening labor market at the Jackson Hole meeting and signaled the possibility of moderate rate cuts in the future. Treasury Secretary Bessent directly called for a 50 basis point rate cut in September to hedge against economic risks. Market expectations for a rate cut in September have rapidly heated up, with the belief that there could be two or more cumulative cuts within the year. Although inflation has not fully receded, the combination of "weakening employment + easing inflation" has made the rate cut path almost a consensus in the market.

Geopolitical uncertainty

On the international front, conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine remain unresolved. Although the U.S. and China have resumed some economic and trade dialogues, significant differences persist in core areas such as high technology and data regulation. Domestically, after a significant downward revision of July labor data, the president fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising market concerns about data independence and policy transparency. Signs of political intervention have made the market cautious about the continuity and credibility of policies, compounded by external geopolitical friction, leading to high uncertainty risks.

Outlook

In summary, by August 2025, the U.S. economy is at a delicate turning point. Inflation remains above target but is marginally slowing, employment momentum is significantly weakening, and consumer confidence is declining, providing a more substantial reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The likelihood of initiating a rate cut path in September is extremely high. However, both international and domestic uncertainty factors remain prominent, and policy transparency and geopolitical risks may still constrain market confidence. The upcoming August inflation, employment, and consumption data will be crucial in determining the pace and magnitude of rate cuts.

2. Overview of the Crypto Market

Cryptocurrency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of August 26, the trading volume in the crypto market showed significant fluctuations in August, with an average daily trading volume of approximately $157.5 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% compared to the previous period. After the PPI data was released on August 14, market risk aversion increased, and trading volume surged, reaching a peak of $264 billion for the month, followed by a rapid decline, maintaining a range of $100-$160 billion from August 16 to 21. On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released dovish signals in his speech, raising the probability of rate cuts, which supported the market, and crypto asset sentiment improved, with trading volume rising above $200 billion again, although overall it remained highly volatile. Overall, the activity in the crypto market in August was significantly driven by macro events, with accelerated capital inflows and outflows, continuing the characteristics of high volatility and high uncertainty.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth

According to CoinGecko data, as of August 26, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $3.95 trillion, down 1.73% from the previous month, fluctuating around $4 trillion. During August, BTC's market share fell to 57.5%, while ETH's market share rose to 14.1%, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuing to rise to 0.40, indicating ETH's strong performance. The total market capitalization continued to decline from $3.85 trillion at the end of July, hitting a monthly low of $3.69 trillion on August 2; subsequently, capital inflows drove a rapid market rebound, reaching a peak of $4.25 trillion on August 13, a rebound of about 15% from the low. However, the high did not form an effective breakthrough, and under the influence of macro factors, the market entered a phase of consolidation, with increased volatility in market capitalization in late August. Overall, although the market capitalization in August rebounded compared to the beginning of the month, it was clearly driven by macro factors, with insufficient upward momentum and significant pressure at high levels, and market confidence remained cautious.

New Popular Tokens Launched in August

The popular tokens launched in August are mainly concentrated in the infrastructure and DeFi sectors, with projects like PROVE, TOWNS, and TREE standing out, already listed on more than ten mainstream exchanges, showing ample liquidity and high market recognition. At the same time, Kanye West's personal MEME token YZY quickly gained market attention after its launch, with its market cap briefly exceeding $3 billion, but then the price rapidly fell, experiencing significant volatility.

|-------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Token | Token Fullname | CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap | Exchange | | PROVE | Succinct | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/succinct/ | Bitmart, Binance, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | YZY | YZY MONEY | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/yzy/ | Bitmart, Gate, Bitget, Crypto.com, Kucoin, Mexc, Phemex | | IKA | Ika | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ika/ | Bitmart, Gate, Bitget, Crypto.com, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | TREE | Treehouse | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/treehouse/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | TOWNS | Towns | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/towns/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | A2Z | Arena-Z | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/arena-z/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bitget, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | SLAY | SatLayer | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/satlayer/ | Bitmart, Gate, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | RHEA | RHEA Finance | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/rhea-finance/ | Bitmart, Gate, Bitget, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | ARIA | AriaAI | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/aria-ai/ | Bitmart, Gate, Bitget, Kucoin, Mexc, Phemex |

3. On-Chain Data Analysis

Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows

In August, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $8.86 billion.

Market sentiment continues to improve, and Bitcoin prices maintain a steady upward trend. As of August 26, Bitcoin's opening price fell from $117,906 to $111,219, a decline of about -5.6%. Bitcoin spot ETF funds experienced outflows, with total assets decreasing by $8.86 billion, leading to a drop in Bitcoin prices.

In August, ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $8.37 billion.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in August, leading the market with significant price increases. As of August 26, ETH's opening price surged from $3,739 to $4,601, with a monthly increase of 23%. The Ethereum spot ETF simultaneously attracted substantial capital, with a net inflow of $8.37 billion, increasing total net assets from $21.52 billion to $29.89 billion (an increase of 38.89%), reflecting strong market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

In August, the total circulation of stablecoins surged by $16.58 billion, with USDC increasing by 10.02% in a single month.

In August, influenced by market increases and other factors, the total circulation of stablecoins surged by $16.58 billion (+6.87%), reaching $257.97 billion. USDC led the market with an increase of $6.32 billion, followed by USDE (+$4.82 billion) and USDT (+$4.12 billion), contributing to the main increase.

4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

BTC Price Change Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $109,741, continuing to hover below the key support level of $110,530. Despite multiple attempts by bulls to defend this line, the weak rebound highlights that bearish pressure remains stubborn. Any upward attempts may face strong resistance at $115,639 (20-day moving average). If the current support area is lost, the decline may accelerate towards $105,000, while the psychological level of $100,000 will be a significant test for market sentiment. Conversely, if a strong breakout occurs above $117,500, it would indicate that BTC is stabilizing within the wide range of $110,530 to $124,474, suggesting that the market may enter a consolidation phase of balance between bulls and bears.

ETH Price Change Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) fell back to $4,424 after reaching a historical high of $4,956 over the weekend. This pullback reflects investors taking healthy profits after a rapid rise, with $4,349 (20-day moving average) still being a key support level. If a strong rebound occurs from here, it may reignite bullish momentum, creating conditions for another attack on $5,000 or even $5,500. If it falls below $4,349, it may initiate a deeper adjustment to $4,060, indicating a short-term shift in sentiment to bearish. Notably, ETH continues to receive strong institutional demand support: this month, ETPs recorded a capital inflow of $2.5 billion, contrasting sharply with BTC's outflow of $1 billion, highlighting a significant shift in capital preference.

SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana (SOL) is currently stabilizing at $188.37, consolidating below the key resistance level of $210. The price pattern is forming an ascending triangle—typically indicating a bullish continuation pattern. If bulls successfully push the price above $210, SOL may quickly gather momentum to target $240 and $265. Currently, buyers still maintain control by suppressing downward volatility, but if there is a decisive break below the ascending trendline, the pattern will shift to bearish dominance, and the price may seek new buying support at $155.

5. Hot Events of the Month

Ethereum's MicroStrategy-like Strategy Drives ETH Price to New Highs

In August, Ethereum's price briefly broke $4,945, with its market cap nearing $600 billion, performing strongly under the dual drive of institutional treasuries and ETFs. Currently, Ethereum's strategic reserve has reached 4.3025 million ETH (approximately $19 billion), accounting for 3.56% of the total supply; ETF holdings have reached 6.526 million ETH (approximately $28.8 billion), with a supply ratio of 5.41%, becoming an important source of new market demand. Representative treasury companies include Bitmine Immersion Tech (1.41% supply) and SharpLink Gaming (0.66%).

Notably, unlike Bitcoin's treasury, which primarily adopts a passive "holding" model, ETH treasury companies are gradually moving towards on-chain monetization. SharpLink Gaming has staked most of its holdings, BTCS Inc. is earning through Rocket Pool, and companies like The Ether Machine and ETHZilla are also preparing for more proactive on-chain asset management. Overall, ETH treasuries are gradually transitioning to a "holding + monetization" model, further consolidating Ethereum's status as a core asset in the market.

WLFI Launches Pre-Contract Trading

In August, WLFI launched pre-contract trading on multiple trading platforms, allowing investors to place bets before the official launch. The price briefly surged to $0.55, then quickly fell back to $0.22, maintaining around $0.26 as of August 28, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of approximately $26 billion. According to official settings, WLFI will open token initial claims and spot trading on September 1, with early supporters (at $0.015 and $0.05 rounds) only able to unlock 20%, while the remaining 80% will require community governance voting for unlocking, and the founding team, advisors, and partners' tokens will not unlock at the initial stage. This mechanism strengthens short-term supply constraints but also increases market speculation and price volatility. During this period, the market briefly heated up due to rumors that Aave might deploy WLFI and share 20% of protocol revenue, leading to a rapid 30% increase in related tokens, but the team later denied the news. If Aave cannot materialize, potential DeFi platforms that could support the WLFI ecosystem mainly focus on Lista and Dolo.

In terms of ecological construction, WLFI's core stablecoin USD1 has achieved cross-chain expansion and has been integrated into important DeFi applications such as Dolomite in the Ethereum ecosystem, Lista DAO in the BSC ecosystem, and liquidity staking protocols BANK and STO. This layout expands the use cases of USD1 from stable payments to lending, trading, and yield applications, enhancing network activity and liquidity. At the same time, WLFI is actively expanding in investments and strategic partnerships, covering multiple sectors such as Meme, infrastructure, AI, and trading, including projects like Buildon, EGL1, Falcon Finance, Sahara, TAG, and Aster, to diversify risks and attract more user entry points.

Pendle Launches New Feature Boros, the First Funding Rate Derivatives Trading Platform

In August, Pendle officially launched Boros, the first funding rate derivatives trading platform in the crypto market on Arbitrum. Its core innovation lies in introducing Yield Unit (YU), standardizing and tokenizing the floating funding rates that originally existed only in CEX/DEX perpetual contracts, transforming them into an independent asset that can be traded, speculated, and hedged directly on-chain. Users can choose to go long or short on funding rates, thus gaining arbitrage or hedging opportunities during extreme market volatility.

Initially, Boros supports users trading BTC and ETH funding rates, with plans to expand to more assets and platforms in the future, theoretically covering all yield/interest rate products (such as PoS staking yields). On the first day of launch, Boros achieved an open interest of $15 million and a nominal trading volume of $36 million, demonstrating strong market demand. As of August 28, Pendle's TVL reached a new high of $10.9 billion, with August revenue of $6.79 million, reflecting a 2-3 times increase compared to monthly revenue in the first half of the year. Although it is still in the early stages and only supports BTC and ETH funding rate trading, its potential is enormous.

6. Outlook for Next Month

Solana Reserve Plan

Over the past year, the treasury model of Bitcoin treasury companies (represented by Strategy) and Ethereum reserve enterprises (represented by BitMine) has been fully validated in the market, attracting substantial capital inflows. This trend is now rapidly extending to the Solana ecosystem, with a new batch of SOL reserve-type treasuries preparing to enter the market.

On August 25, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto announced a joint action, negotiating with potential supporters to raise about $1 billion specifically for accumulating Solana. In fact, Multicoin and Jump have already made deep investments in the Solana ecosystem, while Galaxy has previously raised about $620 million to acquire SOL from the bankrupt assets of FTX. The collaboration among the three parties indicates a clear commitment. Following this, on August 26, Pantera also disclosed plans to raise up to $1.25 billion to acquire a Nasdaq-listed company and transform it into a firm focused on Solana investments, even proposing to name it "Solana Co." These actions indicate that Solana's core institutional supporters are concentrating their investments, not only with substantial capital but also with long-term holding advantages, receiving official support from the Solana Foundation. This not only helps them maintain strategic flexibility amid market fluctuations but also promotes ecological expansion and new capital inflows, thereby enhancing Solana's liquidity and market recognition. Currently, the Solana reserve market has not seen an absolute leader like Bitcoin's "MicroStrategy," leaving ample narrative space and potential to attract more institutional participation. Coupled with the increasing probability of approval for Solana spot ETFs, market confidence in SOL and its reserve enterprises is expected to further strengthen, amplifying the positive effects of capital inflows.

Uniswap Submits DUNI Community Proposal, Taking a Step Towards Compliance

In August, the Uniswap Foundation (UF) submitted the DUNI proposal to the community, suggesting that Uniswap DAO be registered as DUNA (a centralized non-profit association) in Wyoming and establishing a new entity DUNI to provide legal identity and operational support for Uniswap governance. The core goal of the proposal is to provide legal protection for governance participants without changing the core mechanism of on-chain governance, while allowing the DAO to interact with the off-chain world as necessary, such as signing contracts, hiring professional service providers, and fulfilling tax and legal obligations.

• Legal identity and limited liability protection: DUNI will be recognized as an independent legal entity, acknowledging the binding nature of on-chain governance proposals, providing legal and tax liability protection for governance participants. Members will not be personally liable for potential legal or tax risks of the DAO.

• Off-chain operational capabilities: DUNI can sign contracts, hire professional service providers, and manage financial and compliance matters, ensuring that governance and operations proceed smoothly within a legal framework.

• Funding arrangements: The proposal plans to allocate approximately $16.5 million worth of UNI from the treasury for historical tax and legal defense budgets, and to pay $75,000 worth of UNI to Cowrie for compliance management services.

• Supporting the implementation of fee rate switches: The DUNA structure provides a legal basis for the distribution of protocol revenue, allowing for the potential transfer of some trading fee income to the DAO treasury for public spending, research and development, or incentives, enhancing UNI's value capture ability.

If the DUNI proposal is successfully passed, Uniswap DAO will become the largest decentralized organization to adopt the DUNA structure to date, providing a compliance demonstration for the entire DeFi industry. DUNI not only provides legal and tax liability protection for governance participants, reducing personal risk, but also grants the DAO more efficient off-chain execution capabilities, ensuring that contract signing, financial management, and compliance matters are safeguarded while maintaining the authority of on-chain governance. This will create legal feasibility for the implementation of fee rate switches, bringing stable capital inflows, enhancing UNI's value capture ability, and potentially improving governance efficiency and community participation.