Space Review | Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, TRON Completes Strategic Positioning with a Diverse Stablecoin Ecosystem

Recently, an exceptionally weak U.S. non-farm payroll report has stirred significant ripples in global capital markets. The number of new jobs plummeted to 22,000, and the unemployment rate surged to 4.3%. Meanwhile, the latest speeches from Federal Reserve officials have also signaled a potential interest rate cut. As a result, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have continued to heat up. The CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 96.6%, with the likelihood of a total cut of 50 to 75 basis points (2 to 3 cuts) within the year.

In response, risk appetite in the stock and crypto markets has rebounded, the dollar has weakened, and "investment assets" like Bitcoin are being sought after, while the stablecoin sector has unique advantages. The TRON ecosystem is being pushed to the forefront with its diverse stablecoin layout, from the compliant stablecoin USD1 backed by the Trump family, to the globally circulated largest stablecoin TRC20-USDT, and the decentralized over-collateralized stablecoin USDD. The TRON ecosystem is now fully equipped to transition from a high-interest rate environment to a global liquidity easing cycle.

At this critical turning point, the latest episode of SunFlash Space invited several senior industry analysts to delve into how a rate cut could reshape the global liquidity landscape. What new opportunities does the TRON ecosystem have during the interest rate transition cycle? The guests engaged in a lively roundtable discussion on these topics. Below is a recap of the highlights from this episode.

With Rising Rate Cut Expectations, Where is the Crypto Market Heading? Analysts Advise "Cautious Progress"

In light of the U.S. unemployment rate climbing to 4.3% and significantly weak non-farm payroll data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are highly unified. At this critical policy turning point, roundtable guests presented their analyses from different perspectives.

Heiyanzhuan first put forth a clear viewpoint, believing that the current slowdown in the job market makes a Federal Reserve rate cut more likely to be a "temporary adjustment" rather than the beginning of a new cycle. 0xPink also leans towards the "temporary adjustment" judgment, pointing out that at the macro level, the Federal Reserve still faces inflationary pressures and cannot indefinitely inject liquidity, raising doubts about the sustainability of funds.

However, in the short term, guests generally believe that if a rate cut occurs, it will stimulate liquidity growth in the crypto market. Sweet pointed out that altcoin liquidity has remained sluggish over the past six months, but recent notable movements in AI sectors and tokens like Worldcoin indicate that funds are flowing back into the market. He predicts that if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, it is likely to trigger a policy-driven rebound.

0xPink agrees that the combination of a rate cut and a weaker dollar is a strong positive for the crypto market, as a weaker dollar will inevitably drive funds to seek higher-yielding assets, with the crypto market's high volatility and anti-inflation properties becoming a target for funds. However, he also clearly states that this should not be simply viewed as the start of a "bull market."

0xPink emphasizes that the structure of the crypto market has changed, with increased regulation and institutional participation meaning that market movements will not solely be driven by retail investors. Therefore, he believes that while short-term positive sentiment may ignite the market, investors need to pay more attention to whether funds can remain in the long term and which sectors can truly absorb liquidity, suggesting a "cautious progress" approach to seizing opportunities.

In the Rate Cut Cycle, RWA and Stablecoins May Become the Biggest Winners, with the TRON Ecosystem Gaining Favor

If a rate cut occurs, how will funds be allocated among crypto assets? Will they first flow into Bitcoin, the representative of value storage, or choose Ethereum, which has a rich ecosystem, or directly enter the RWA and stablecoin sectors that represent compliance and yield?

Xiao Zhi pointed out that we should "always believe in the vision of capital." He cited the symbolic event of Nasdaq applying to launch tokenized stocks, believing this is undoubtedly a significant positive for RWA and compliant stablecoins. Even if the application is not approved, its symbolic significance is substantial. He further analyzed that traditional institutional funds prioritize safety and compliance, and the RWA and stablecoin sectors not only align with the logic of the traditional financial system but also possess on-chain operational efficiency, making risks relatively controllable.

Heiyanzhuan shares a similar view, stating that stablecoins serve as an important "liquidity reservoir" and safe haven in the crypto market, with their role becoming prominent amid market volatility brought on by rate cuts. Their transactional medium properties also help attract institutional funds seeking efficiency and convenience.

In terms of stablecoin layout, the TRON ecosystem has built a diversified stablecoin matrix of "mainstream stablecoin USDT + decentralized stablecoin USDD + compliant stablecoin USD1," comprehensively covering the different needs from institutions, ordinary users to compliant commercial scenarios, providing a smooth, safe, and efficient entry for traditional funds into the crypto world.

Among them, the compliant stablecoin USD1 issued by the crypto institution World Liberty Financial has completed native minting on TRON and is deeply integrated with the TRON ecosystem. In July, the core DEX of the TRON ecosystem, SUN.io, launched the USD1 trading pair, providing users with a convenient trading channel. In August, the lending protocol JustLend DAO fully supported USD1 deposits and loans, further expanding its yield application scenarios. As of September 8, the issuance of USD1 on the TRON chain has surpassed 56.57 million.

The mainstream stablecoin TRC20-USDT, with advantages such as fast transfer speed, high security, and low transaction fees, has become the most widely used on-chain stablecoin, with issuance surpassing 82.6 billion. It has gained support from numerous mainstream exchanges and wallets, with usage scenarios covering financial trusts, shopping payments, travel settlements, live streaming consumption, and more, playing an important role in global value circulation.

The TVL of the decentralized over-collateralized stablecoin USDD has surpassed $530 million, utilizing multi-currency over-collateralization and real-time on-chain verification to ensure that every USDD is backed by sufficient assets, significantly enhancing user confidence. Notably, through deep collaboration with the TRON DeFi ecosystem, USDD not only provides investors with a "safe haven" to avoid severe market fluctuations but also deeply integrates into various yield scenarios such as collateral lending and liquidity mining, becoming an important tool for users to combat inflation and achieve asset appreciation.

0xPink concluded by stating that institutional funds seeking yield will not stop at Bitcoin alone; they will inevitably flow into areas that combine yield with traditional financial logic, with RWA and DeFi protocols closely tied to stablecoins becoming the preferred direction for institutions. The TRON ecosystem combines DeFi with stablecoins, providing funds with yield management and liquidity tools. Meanwhile, the compliance advantages brought by Nasdaq listings will make the TRON ecosystem a key hub for absorbing traditional institutional funds and connecting real-world assets with on-chain yield ecosystems during the rate cut cycle.