Market Review: The Survival Study of Post-Cycle Markets

Original Title: Let the Wind Blow from All Directions
Source: Laolu

Compiled by: Zhou, ChainCatcher

I believe that character determines destiny.

Firstly, I am obviously more of a left-leaning "i" person, maintaining rationality most of the time, accustomed to planning ahead, but also prone to missing out. The most direct manifestation is: when facing a decline, I tend to buy more as it drops, but resist chasing when the price rises. This "conservatively rational" trading style makes it difficult to capture the full meat of a major trend, often leading to premature positioning and subsequent regret.

Hiding cleverness in clumsiness, many lessons are worth remembering but need to be let go: after selling 2.6 million APX at 0.11 (approximately $6M at 2.3), even if Aster opened and held, my selling position would never exceed 0.3. Therefore, the subsequent market from 0.4 to 2.4 was indeed unrelated to me. Letting go of myself also means letting go of missed opportunities.

There are countless similar examples; recently, I lost money selling 600 million Pengu at mid-year, calculating about $27M at 0.046. I wouldn't have made a profit even if it rose; even if it did rise, I wouldn't have been able to get that position. Ultimately, I have also become accustomed to these occurrences. At the same time, I enjoy recording and reviewing, feeling that my decision-making is now more neutral than before, daring to make some right-side operations I previously hesitated to do, and recovering from negative emotions more quickly.

The ideal version of myself is to become an angel investor like "DCF" or "CL," but due to various market changes, I may have to give up this path.

Be a Better Version of Yourself, Not Someone Else

In the market, there are always people saying: "So-and-so bought something and made so much."

In the past, I would be influenced, following along with sighs and emotional fluctuations. Now, I adjust much faster; I can sigh but my psychological fluctuations have decreased significantly, only caring about the few fruits in my hands.

Living in the market, the most important thing is not to imitate others but to accept your own rhythm and bear the profits and losses of your own decisions. Regrettable positions are yours, and emotions should also be yours, not outsourced to anyone.

Behind Success

Behind every seemingly beautiful operation is countless tears and pitfall experiences that need to be recorded and summarized.

Also referencing 0xSun's records.

I also enjoy recording and reviewing; previously, I had a public Notion. Taking the stablecoin track as an example, I have accumulated at least five years of experience.

In this cycle, many projects lose my interest at a glance; truly exciting projects are rare, and when encountered, one should go all out without hesitation.

Looking back at ZKF, BIO, ETH, Plasma… there are indeed many regrets, losses from not daring to hedge, losses from not daring to increase positions, opportunity costs during waiting periods, etc.

When I first met Snow, she asked me what type of projects I liked to participate in. I said it depends on the project situation, hoping for early opportunities for community involvement. I can share early on, and friends who see my content can also make money. I am very happy to see similar projects finally appearing in the market that create a positive feedback loop.

Behind Failure

"XX is going to launch XX, XX is going to pump, so-and-so bought XXX." These voices can always be heard in the market.
The belief in trading cannot be borrowed. Each time I passively follow others or lack independent thinking in trading, it almost always ends in failure. Positions without belief are too easy to flip.

Fortunately, I stop-loss relatively quickly, allowing me to retain capital and confidence for another battle, as the saying goes, "Leave the green mountains." Some trades, if not stopped out, would go to zero, and this has happened many times, but the losses are limited.

Experiences of failure are more valuable to learn from than experiences of success; success is often not replicable, and most people's failures may be similar. Avoiding pitfalls and defense are very important.

"The core of wealth growth is to avoid large drawdowns," is daidai's Twitter bio, which is very true. Benchu also adheres to this principle.

Dissolution of the Community

When I first entered this industry, I was involved in blockchain gaming guilds, and later in wallet products. I really enjoyed the atmosphere of group chats, treating everyone equally, whether they were unknowns or industry leaders.

This is not the first dissolution, and it may not be the last. But this time will be a longer break. The reason is simple: I can no longer continuously provide more valuable information and market insights.

Even so, I still thank my group friends for the continuous emotional value and positive feedback they provided, confirming the significance of this matter, and I hope to meet again in other groups.

"But the sky will eventually darken, and people must part ways; no one can accompany anyone forever."

A Decent KOL

Professionalism & Content Quality

Create less FOMO and reposting, and more logical analysis.

Dare to admit mistakes and also dare to say "I don't know."

Do not frequently "shout orders to cut leeks" or spread false information.

Not every project is accepted; instead, selectively recommend protocols I recognize, not just posting a few ads to make quick money when the market is hot.

Character & Credibility

Dare to share real trades, real emotions, and real positions.

Consistent long-term values, able to discuss with the community rather than only allowing flattery.

Can remind of risks, not encouraging excessive FOMO.

Do not touch other people's funds to avoid economic disputes.

Having handled funds beyond imagination when broke, still able to uphold bottom lines and fulfill commitments.

Review after falling, rather than shifting blame to others for rights protection, with a grateful heart.

Growth & Relationships

Continuously learn, making progress in narrative, technology, and investment strategies.

Maintain boundaries, not overly tying personal life and emotions to market fluctuations.

Believe in "Skin in the game," hoping to stand on the same boat with real capital positions, rather than pointing fingers from behind a screen. Of course, this has also led to many losses, which I won't enumerate.

Market Insights & Facing the Future

The current market may only have the last 2 years of a bonus period left. The end of a cycle is often accompanied by superficial prosperity and capital inflow, but the difficulty of truly making money is higher because more and more participants are entering, becoming smarter, and the competition is more intense, with trends becoming more fragmented.

Changes in Market Participant Structure

No longer the wild era of "just rush in and win" from a few years ago; more and more rational, professional, and execution-oriented people are coming in.

Institutions, funds, and quantitative teams treat the market as a professional battlefield, continuously improving efficiency. If Western countries are so friendly and embracing, are there not bigger players?

The new generation of retail investors is faster, more adept at using tools, has stronger learning abilities, and understands risk management better.

After buying xx project, who will be the next buyer? That group has disappeared.

Tool Upgrades & Information Gap Narrowing

Information flows faster, and mature tools allow information in the market to be almost disseminated in real-time.

When you read protocol-specific information, some of it may already be outdated.

Strategy iteration accelerates: the lifespan of a profitable strategy may only be a few weeks, arbitrage and gameplay patterns are quickly rolled into unprofitable territory, affecting not only retail investors but also the main players.

The Harsh Reality of Competition

Those who survive are all experts: researchers, arbitrageurs, project parties, speculators, scientists, hackers, each trying their best to make money.

Behind every profitable position, there is another person losing money.

The increase in BTC this cycle has not actually exceeded the increase of many other leading investment fields.

Primary funds are no longer making money, with many closing due to losses; long-cycle large funds can still rely on their old capital.

The secondary market has stripped away the labels of the projects themselves, reducing them to mere chip games, playing guessing games with the main players.

Meme coins, under the support of various mature tools, have become transparent, but celebrity coins still come and go.

Projects without resources cannot attract funding no matter how well they perform, while projects with resources are not judged by what they do.

Streamline strategies, filter out noise, reduce unnecessary socializing and ineffective information input, and focus attention on in-depth research and action, striving to achieve "holding on, understanding, and daring to increase positions," ultimately quietly leaving the bustling table, taking away my own story and these regrets.

"Regardless of how it ends, at least we once gathered without the need to bind each other with effort or make verbal promises."

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