Analysis: Bitcoin reaches the key milestone of $100,000, the macro environment is unclear but still constructive

Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that Bitcoin overnight fell below the key support level of $100,000, driving down global risk assets. This round of decline was mainly influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, leading to a general setback in market risk appetite.

Macroeconomic pressures quickly transmitted to the crypto market, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of approximately $1.3 billion over four consecutive days, turning from a significant driving force at the beginning of the year into a short-term resistance. The market is witnessing a phenomenon of weak spot demand coexisting with forced deleveraging, where long positions were liquidated for over $1 billion during the price bottoming period, followed by bargain hunting.

The structure of the options market has also intensified volatility, with traders maintaining a net short gamma position near the $100,000 strike price, and their hedging behavior amplifying price fluctuations. Currently, $100,000 has become a key psychological level; if ETF fund flows stabilize, market sentiment is expected to recover quickly.

On the macro level, the US government shutdown has affected the release of October's non-farm payroll data, leading the market to rely on private indicators to gauge economic trends. Data prior to the shutdown showed economic resilience: Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, employment growth slowed but productivity improved, and the Q3 GDP Now forecast remained at a high of 4%. High-frequency indicators show that the economy is still experiencing moderate expansion.

With unclear policy prospects, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October but released cautious signals, and the expectation for another rate cut in December has weakened. Currently, the market's expectation for subsequent rate cuts stands at 60-65%; if the quiet period is extended, the likelihood of pausing rate cuts will increase, further supporting the dollar and tightening credit. If Bitcoin wants to restart its upward momentum, it will need to wait for a reversal in ETF outflows and a warming of risk sentiment.