Rewrite of the 18-year script, U.S. government shutdown ends = Bitcoin price will soar?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

The U.S. government shutdown is about to come to an end. After 40 days of budget deadlock, a breakthrough occurred on the evening of November 9: the U.S. Senate reached a preliminary temporary funding agreement with a vote of 60 to 40, extending government funding until January 30 of next year. It is expected that government operations will restart in the short term. In response, Trump told reporters, "The government shutdown seems to be coming to an end."

According to CNN, multiple Senate sources confirmed that Senate leaders have reached a bipartisan temporary agreement to end the longest government shutdown in history.

Currently just a "pause" in the shutdown; the agreement still needs several days for procedural approval

This is the longest shutdown in U.S. history, which began on October 1 when the fiscal year started. The reason for the deadlock was the inability of Republicans and Democrats to reach a consensus on the new fiscal year's budget, particularly regarding the extension of medical tax credits and the layoffs and spending cuts pushed by the Trump administration.

The newly reached consensus indicates that the Senate will schedule a vote in December on new amendments to the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare. Sources revealed that the Democratic caucus has enough votes to support this agreement, which is expected to pave the way for the bill's passage and the reopening of the government. The agreement also includes the reversal of Trump's previous order to dismiss certain federal employees and adds provisions to prevent similar actions from happening again.

Additionally, the agreement will ensure that the food stamps program receives extended funding until the 2026 fiscal year to avoid further impacts on low-income families.

However, Reuters also pointed out that the agreement passed by the Senate still needs approval from the House of Representatives, and after passing the vote, it must be sent to Trump for signature. For now, it can only be described as a "pause" in the shutdown.

Overall situation similar to 2018; shutdown end = Bitcoin rebound from low?

According to ABC, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2018-2019 shutdown caused a loss of $11 billion, and this shutdown has lasted even longer, with a deeper impact. Currently, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has ballooned to $1 trillion, siphoning off about $700 billion in liquidity from the market, leading to cash shortages in banks and record usage of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF).

The cryptocurrency market has been particularly hard hit, with Bitcoin's price dropping to around $102,600, down over 10% in two weeks and 18% from its historical high in early October. The analyst team at BitMEX noted in a recent report that this shutdown has accelerated the decline trajectory of the Bitcoin bull market, primarily due to the abnormal expansion of the Treasury General Account (TGA).

During the shutdown, federal agencies suspended non-essential spending, but tax collection and debt issuance continued, causing the TGA balance to soar from its previous low to $1 trillion. This is equivalent to government agencies siphoning off about $700 billion in liquidity from the private financial system, funds that could have been used for bank lending, money market fund investments, or risk asset allocations, are now locked in government accounts and completely illiquid, resulting in increased cash shortages in the banking system. The usage rate of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has reached a historic high, indicating that financial institutions are struggling for short-term funding. This liquidity drought has not only depressed Bitcoin's trading depth but has also prompted investors to accelerate profit-taking: OG holders have recently sold off some positions, further amplifying the correction.

Looking back at the U.S. government shutdown and Bitcoin prices, it can be observed that the 35-day shutdown from 2018 to 2019 (then the longest record) coincided with the end of the crypto bear market, where Bitcoin fell from about $4,014 to a low of $3,600, a drop of about 6-10%, reflecting the general sell-off of risk assets during economic uncertainty. After the shutdown ended and the government reopened in early 2019, Bitcoin rose for seven consecutive days, initiating a five-month surge with an increase of nearly 300%, rebounding to over $5,000 from its low.

This rebound was not only a market sentiment recovery but also benefited from subsequent liquidity injections and a rebound in global risk appetite. The current shutdown in 2025 has already exceeded the record by 40 days, and the overall situation is closer to that of 2018. Analyst Ash Crypto pointed out, "Last time the U.S. government reopened, Bitcoin embarked on a five-month rally, soaring over 300%." Former Arthur Hayes also added that this correction is purely due to a macro liquidity crisis, and Bitcoin's four-year cycle is far from over; the halving effect and ETF inflows will continue to drive long-term upward momentum.

However, the current market environment is vastly different. Factors such as institutional funds brought in by Bitcoin ETFs, global monetary policy divergence, and uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration may cause this rebound trajectory to differ from the past. History can serve as a reference but cannot be completely replicated.

Trump easily pressures Democrats to concede, exacerbating internal party divisions

Currently, internal divisions within the Democratic Party have intensified. Centrists, retiring senators, or those facing tough re-election battles were key votes in this compromise, allowing the Democrats to take action to end the painful government shutdown, but it further incited anger among the left-wing grassroots, viewing this as a missed opportunity to confront the Republican cuts to government programs and Trump's authoritarianism.

Virginia Senator Mark Warner opposed the agreement, stating that it only allowed Republicans to take a small step. Trump's hardline strategy worked; he continued to travel abroad and play golf, refusing to negotiate throughout, only giving a commitment for a December vote at the last moment, successfully pressuring the Democrats to concede.

The BBC warned that this clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the "hard drag tactic" under Republican control of the Senate, but it also leaves millions without healthcare coverage. The shutdown is bound to become a normal operating method of the U.S. government, with the risk of shutdowns significantly increasing over the next five years. If Congress does not reform, the economy and people's livelihoods will continue to be used as political bargaining chips.