The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 71.3%, increasing bets on a rate cut

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 71.3%. Following the collective dovish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials today, bets on a December rate cut have intensified, after previously dipping below 30%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate in December is 8.2%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged until January 2026 is 19.2%. The probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 23.7%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates are December 10 and January 28, 2026.