QCP: The market is focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with Bitcoin's year-end liquidity hitting bottom and experiencing severe fluctuations

QCP released its daily market observation stating that BTC experienced significant fluctuations between $88,000 and $92,000 on Sunday, while ETH surged rapidly from $2,910 to $3,150. As liquidity continues to decline towards the end of the year, the market has become particularly sensitive to small capital flows. However, the scale of liquidations remains relatively small under strong volatility, indicating that market participation and positions have continued to decrease this quarter. The open interest of perpetual contracts for the two major assets has dropped by 40-50% from the October peak, and retail sentiment has returned to bear market levels.

Meanwhile, the supply side is tightening significantly. Approximately 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from trading platforms in the past two weeks, with ETF and corporate holdings exceeding exchange balances for the first time; ETH reserves on trading platforms have also fallen to nearly a decade low, indicating that while retail investors are exiting, long-term capital is quietly accumulating. Market focus is shifting to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Although the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut, the guidance on the balance sheet will determine the direction of risk assets towards the end of the year.

Currently, BTC is still fluctuating in the range of $84,000 to $100,000, while market depth continues to deteriorate. With the year-end holidays approaching, any breakout on either side could trigger the next major trend.