Fidelity Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter a New Cycle, Year-End Performance Still Uncertain

Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer posted on the X platform, pointing out that after excessive speculation in the crypto market has subsided, market sentiment has improved. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies and calm in the bond and foreign exchange markets, Bitcoin's official price forecast for 2025 actually looks quite good.

Previously, Bitcoin treasury companies provided "yields" by purchasing Bitcoin through stock issuance, which may now become a resistance to Bitcoin's rise and has raised questions about whether another four-year cycle has come to an end.

However, by observing the structure of Bitcoin's mature network curve, it can be seen that since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced five waves of upward trends, with each wave's increase being smaller than the previous one, but the duration has become longer. From the performance in the recent bull market (starting from around $16,000 in 2022), it can be seen that Bitcoin has become very mature.

According to the five-wave upward trend chart shared by Jurrien Timmer, the peak price of Bitcoin in the fifth wave may be $151,360.