Analysis: Approximately $23.8 billion in nominal value of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26, potentially leading to concentrated clearing and repricing of risk exposure at year-end

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion in nominal value of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that the BTC derivatives market will face a "concentration of risk exposure liquidation and repricing" at the end of the year, with prices potentially constrained by structural factors before expiration, but uncertainty actually increasing afterward.

From the data, there is a significant accumulation of open interest (OI) at the two closest positions to the current BTC spot price: 14,674 BTC for the $85,000 Put; and 18,116 BTC for the $100,000 Call. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely from ETF hedging positions, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions that hold substantial amounts of BTC spot.

The Put at the $85,000 strike price indicates that buyers are the "active party," reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at this price level. Similarly, the large accumulation of Call OI at the $100,000 strike price essentially does not mean "the market is bullish up to here," but rather that long-term capital is willing to cede upside potential above this level in exchange for current certainty in cash flow and overall manageable risk.

By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within a bearable range. Given that OI has already formed significantly, this $85,000--$100,000 options corridor will create a structural impact on BTC prices before December 26, characterized by "implicit pressure above, passive buffering below, and volatility in the middle range."