10x Research: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin still exists, but the driving forces have shifted from halving to politics and liquidity

According to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still exists, but its main driving factors are no longer halving, but rather political factors, liquidity environment, and election cycles.

The Bitcoin market reached historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has not regained strong upward momentum. The reason is that institutional investors have become the dominant force in the crypto market but are making more cautious decisions. With the Federal Reserve's policy signals still wavering and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of capital inflow has noticeably slowed, weakening the momentum needed for sustained price breakthroughs. Before liquidity improves significantly, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations and sideways consolidation rather than quickly entering a new parabolic uptrend.