Analysis: Bitcoin recorded a decline for the first time a year after the halving, potentially breaking the "four-year cycle."

Bitcoin closed lower in 2025 than at the beginning of the year, marking the first time in history that it recorded an annual decline in the year following a halving, sparking intense discussions in the market about whether the "Bitcoin four-year cycle" has come to an end. Despite the latest halving occurring in April 2024, BTC previously reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, but then experienced a significant pullback, currently down over 30% from its peak, with weaker performance throughout the year.

Analysts pointed out that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin reached new highs in the following year, a pattern that has not continued in this cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated that Bitcoin's decline in the year following the halving means that the "four-year cycle is officially dead."

Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the inclusion of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has made Bitcoin less driven by retail sentiment and more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitics. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by "programmatic halving," instead unfolding in new forms.

The divergence in the market regarding the long-term cycle structure of Bitcoin continues to widen.