Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.11 trillion, with ++BTC++ accounting for 58.56%, which is $1.82 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $30.75 billion, decreasing by 0.25% in the last 7 days, marking two consecutive weeks of negative weekly growth for stablecoins, with ++USDT++ accounting for 60.8%.
Among the top 200 projects on ++CoinMarketCap++, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: ++BTC++ with a 7-day increase of 4.2%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 6.92%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 7.93%, MYX with a 7-day increase of 84.42%, and PEPE with a 7-day increase of 54.1%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. ++Bitcoin++ spot ETF was $458.7 million; the net inflow for the U.S. ++Ethereum++ spot ETF was $1.613 billion.
Market Forecast (January 5 - January 9):
Currently, the RSI index is at 60.59 (neutral range), and the Fear and Greed Index is at 26 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range), while the Altcoin Season Index is at 39 (neutral, higher than last week).
++BTC++ core range: $87,000-93,000
++ETH++ core range: $3,000-3,500
++SOL++ core range: $129-150
This week marks the first week of 2026, with the net inflow into U.S. spot ETFs directly contributing to the increase in cryptocurrency market capitalization. After gold and silver broke new highs and experienced a price correction, the cryptocurrency market absorbed some liquidity due to capital overflow. It is expected that next week's market will fluctuate upward within a range, and short-term traders can engage in "buy low, sell high" actions. Recently, small-cap altcoins have seen significant increases, and given the uncertainty in the 2026 market, chasing highs is not recommended.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On December 29, Liu Lei, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the bank will issue an "Action Plan for Further Strengthening the Management and Service System of Digital Renminbi and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction." The new generation of digital renminbi measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecological system will officially launch on January 1, 2026;
2. On December 29, Indian police arrested a former Coinbase customer service representative in Hyderabad, who is suspected of being involved in the internal data leak incident disclosed by Coinbase in May of this year. This is the first known arrest in the case, confirmed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong;
3. According to LatePost, Meta has acquired the company Butterfly Effect, which develops AI applications, for billions of dollars. This is Meta's third-largest acquisition since its establishment, following WhatsApp and ScaleAI. It is reported that before the acquisition, Manus was raising funds at a valuation of $2 billion. "I even doubted whether this was a fake offer," said Liu Yuan, a partner at ZhenFund and an angel investor in Butterfly Effect, noting that the acquisition negotiations were completed in a very short time, taking only about ten days;
4. On December 30, Trust Wallet proactively compensated affected users, with a total amount of stolen assets around $8.5 million;
5. On December 31, thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a significant increase in AI investment enthusiasm, the global stock market is expected to achieve its largest annual increase in six years in 2025. With only one trading day left in 2025, the MSCI Global Stock Index has risen 21% this year;
6. On January 4, Tom Lee published an article supporting BitMine's increase in authorized capital, with BMNR rising 14.88%;
7. On January 3, after 14:00 Beijing time, a loud explosion was heard in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, triggering air raid sirens, and power supply was interrupted in the southern area of the city near a large military base. The cryptocurrency market experienced a certain degree of decline, possibly influenced by this incident.

Macroeconomics

1. On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 was 199,000, the lowest since the week of November 29, below the market expectation of 220,000, with the previous value revised from 214,000 to 215,000.
2. On January 4, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 16.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 83.4%.

ETF

According to statistics, from December 29 to January 2, the net inflow of ++U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF++ was $458.7 million; as of January 2, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.193 billion, currently holding $14.793 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.313 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.546 billion.
The net inflow of ++U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF++ was $161.3 million.

Envisioning the Future

Project Progress

1. The Ethereum-focused video program The Daily Gwei will resume weekly updates on January 5, 2026;
2. The application deadline for the social app Based's Christmas commemorative "Soulbound" NFT is January 7, 2026;
3. Web3 robotics company XMAQUINA will collaborate with Virtuals Protocol for a DEUS community sale on January 8, with the auction starting at 20:00 on January 8, and an FDV of $60 million (DEUS price: $0.06). At TGE, 33% will be liquid assets, and 67% will vest linearly over 12 months. The public sale is open to all non-U.S. contributors, and eligible wallets can receive a 20% DEUS reward, including rewards for any previous Genesis auction participants. Contributing 10,000 USDC with the same wallet will earn a 20% DEUS reward.

Important Events

1. On January 7 at 21:15, the U.S. will announce December ADP employment numbers (in ten thousand);
2. On January 8 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 (in ten thousand);
3. On January 9 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate for December.

Token Unlocking

1. 1.2 million tokens belonging to the team in Hyperliquid will unlock on January 6, with subsequent unlocks occurring on the 6th of each month;
2. Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on January 7, valued at approximately $5.4 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply;
3. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on January 9, valued at approximately $6 million, accounting for 1.62% of the circulating supply;
4. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on January 10, valued at approximately $10.18 million, accounting for 2% of the circulating supply.

About Us

++Hotcoin Research++ is the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hot Coin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: ++https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch++
X: ++x.com/Hotcoin_Academy++
Mail: ++labs@hotcoin.com++