The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.3%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 9.7%

According to Jinshi reports, before the CPI announcement, based on CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.7%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 28.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 69.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 2.2%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.4%.