Analysis: The profitability of long-term BTC holders has plummeted to 3%, and the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered

According to on-chain analyst @MorenoDV_ in a post on CryptoQuant, the long-term holders (LTH) of BTC are approaching a critical turning point in their adjusted net unrealized profit (NUPL), but the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered.

Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply compressed from 58% to 3% over 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not entered the comprehensive liquidation range necessary for historically forming a market bottom.

Analysts point out that true market bottoms in history have formed after LTH holdings have fully turned into losses. The current environment is closer to the late-cycle pressure phase rather than complete liquidation. It is recommended to focus on signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, accompanied by long-term compression of price and volatility, as this condition has historically been highly correlated with asymmetric entry opportunities.