Analysis: The funding rate has been negative for 66 consecutive days, yet Bitcoin has still risen to around $81,000, with institutional hedging being the main reason

According to Decrypt, as the price of Bitcoin rises to around $81,000, its perpetual contract 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 66 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest duration this decade. Data shows that in a negative funding rate environment, shorts need to pay fees to longs, with the current annualized cost around 12%. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's price increased by about 12% in April, while open interest (OI) grew by about 12%, indicating that the market has not experienced typical panic short-selling.

Analysts point out that this phenomenon mainly stems from institutional hedging behavior rather than pure bearish sentiment, including hedge funds shorting futures during redemption cycles, basis trading strategies (going long on related stocks while shorting Bitcoin), and mining companies hedging their Bitcoin assets as they shift to AI computing business.

Historical data indicates that buying Bitcoin during similar negative funding rate phases has a probability of achieving positive returns within a 90-day period ranging from 83% to 96%. The market generally believes that if the price effectively breaks through the key resistance level of around $82,000, it may trigger a short covering rally, pushing the price further up; conversely, it may retreat to oscillate in the range of $70,000 to $75,000.