Arthur Hayes: Liquidity, not regulatory benefits, is the core factor driving the rise of Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that the cryptocurrency industry does not rely on regulation to drive development, and the core factors affecting Bitcoin prices are only technological reliability and fiat liquidity, with the latter being the true driving force.

He pointed out that every round of monetary expansion, from the quantitative easing during the Obama era, fiscal stimulus during Trump's first term, to the release of reverse repo liquidity through short-term debt replacing long-term debt during Biden's term, has been highly correlated with the rise of Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes believes that although the Trump administration has promoted several cryptocurrency regulatory bills, Bitcoin has still fallen about 25% over the past 18 months, indicating that favorable regulation does not directly drive price increases.

He also mentioned that the Trump family has previously experienced events such as de-banking, asset freezes, and lawsuits, which may make them better understand the value of Bitcoin as an asset that is detached from state control. Arthur Hayes stated that if Bitcoin ultimately evolves into a regular financial product on bank balance sheets, it will lose its original meaning.