CryptoQuant: Under the backdrop of a "bear market rebound," the profit-taking pressure on Bitcoin may further increase

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has risen over 20% to a three-month high since early April, but research director Julio Moreno still views it as a "bear market rally."

He pointed out that Bitcoin holders realized an average daily profit of 14,600 Bitcoins on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. The spending output profit ratio for short-term holders has remained above 1 since mid-April, indicating that the market has entered a "clear profit-taking zone." Moreno noted that the 30-day rolling net profit has reached +20,000 Bitcoins, marking the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, signaling a structural turning point in bear market dynamics.

However, this level is far below the typical range of 130,000 to 200,000 Bitcoins during a bull market confirmation period. The current unrealized profit margin is 18%, and historical experience suggests that high levels of unrealized profits increase the risk of a pullback. However, the demand for perpetual futures remains strong, spot demand is moderately contracting, and exchange inflows are sluggish, indicating that a pullback may take some time to materialize.