Analysis: Bitcoin stabilizes at $81,000, the situation in Iran and the selling pressure from whales put the market at a crossroads

According to The Block, affected by Iran's rejection of the U.S. peace framework and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $104 on Monday, while Bitcoin remained fluctuating above $81,000. Analysts believe that the current crypto market is more driven by geopolitical factors rather than fundamental factors. QCP Capital describes the current market as "standing at a crossroads," viewing $84,000 as the next key resistance level for Bitcoin.

Previously, the inflow of ETF funds, expectations of increased holdings by listed companies, and optimistic sentiment around the U.S. Clarity Act stablecoin bill drove BTC up to the $80,000 range, but recently there has been some profit-taking. Laser Digital stated that the market had previously bet that Strategy would make large-scale Bitcoin purchases, but after the expectations fell through, it triggered profit-taking sell-offs. Additionally, some enterprise-level BTC holders have slowed down or paused their accumulation, which has intensified market pressure.

Meanwhile, Ethereum became the main target of selling last week. Reports indicate that a whale holding approximately $1 billion in both BTC and ETH has been continuously selling ETH, leading to a noticeable weakening of ETH relative to BTC. Although this address continued to transfer ETH to exchanges over the weekend, it has not triggered further sell-offs.

On the macro level, U.S. non-farm payroll data for April was stronger than expected, alleviating short-term stagflation concerns for the Federal Reserve; the market is also focused on the upcoming CPI and PPI data to be released this week, as well as the progress of meetings between Trump and Chinese leaders in Beijing. CoinShares data shows that net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $857.9 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows.