Analysis: Trump's tough stance on Iran triggers a sell-off of risk assets, Bitcoin falls below $77,000

According to CoinDesk, influenced by U.S. President Trump's tough rhetoric towards Iran, the cryptocurrency market collectively weakened along with global risk assets. Trump stated that Iran "has little time left" and "should act quickly, or they will have nothing," which pushed Brent crude oil to briefly surpass $112 per barrel. Bitcoin fell about 2.4% to $76,500, marking a new low since April 30; Ethereum dropped about 3.5% to $2,116, nearly erasing all gains since April. U.S. stock futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3% and 0.25%, respectively.

Derivatives market data showed that the total nominal trading volume of contracts surged 65% to $159 billion in the past 24 hours, but open interest (OI) decreased by 1.48% to $125 billion, while the liquidation amount soared 500% to $677 million, indicating that the market is undergoing significant deleveraging rather than new directional bets. Altcoins performed significantly worse than mainstream coins, with BCH down 10% and DOGE down 4.5%. The CoinDesk Meme Index fell 2.2%, becoming one of the worst-performing sectors. Notably, BCH showed clear signs of "crowded shorts": OI increased by 13% to 1.47 million coins, and the perpetual contract funding rate dropped to an annualized -72%, the most negative level among mainstream coins, indicating aggressive short-selling sentiment in the market, which could trigger a sharp short squeeze if sentiment reverses.

In contrast, ZEC performed relatively strongly, with OI increasing for the third consecutive day and surpassing 2 million coins. The 24-hour active buying data ranked among the top for mainstream coins, with a funding rate of only about 4%, not yet entering the overheating zone. ZEC has accumulated a 111% increase this quarter, and the market believes there is still room for further gains if the overall environment stabilizes. Additionally, tokens like HYPE, CRO, and TON also saw increases in open interest. Aside from ZEC, TON, and HYPE, most of the other top 25 tokens recorded negative active buy-sell volume differentials (CVD), indicating that the market is still predominantly driven by active selling.

In terms of volatility, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) rose from 40% to 42% since May 9; the U.S. Treasury volatility indicator (MOVE index) surged 14% last Friday, marking the largest single-day increase since March 26, as the market worries about rising global financial pressures potentially further heightening panic in the cryptocurrency market.