CITIC Securities: The cross-strait navigation is approaching, waiting for demand to recover

CITIC Securities believes that the U.S. and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has basically priced this as the baseline scenario. The biggest change after reaching an agreement will be the simultaneous replenishment of supply and demand and a rapid warming of economic activity. Currently, some economic indicators are noticeably weak, reflecting a delay in demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Micro entities are waiting rather than rushing to replenish inventory and start operations, which is an abnormal disturbance. As the agreement is reached and navigation in the Strait is restored, supply and demand will return to normal, and economic activity will show significant improvement after June. Changes in macro variables will also alter the environmental assumptions of market strategies, leading to a gradual balancing of styles. The reduction of large funds is nearing its end, and after macro stability is achieved, allocation funds will gradually return, driving the recovery of some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and reconstruct the barbell structure of AI + energy.