Analysis: The cryptocurrency derivatives market is turning bearish; if Bitcoin falls below $60,000, it may trigger a larger-scale liquidation

The cryptocurrency market experienced a new round of selling and liquidation on Thursday, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $61,300 before rebounding to $64,680, currently reporting around $62,500. Over the past two days, the total market leverage liquidation scale was about $3 billion. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, futures trading volume rose to $305 billion, but open interest fell by 8.5% to $111.4 billion, indicating that the market is primarily deleveraging rather than adding new positions.

Bitcoin's open interest fell from yesterday's historical high of over 800,000 BTC to 766,000 BTC. Investors seem to be leaving the cryptocurrency market and turning towards AI narratives in traditional markets. The derivatives market has clearly shifted to a bearish stance. The skew of BTC and ETH put options has strengthened, showing that investors are willing to pay higher premiums for downside protection. The nominal open interest of BTC put options with a strike price of $60,000 on Deribit exceeds $1 billion, while the most actively traded options contracts in the past 24 hours were the $55,000 put options.

Altcoins have seen deeper declines, with NEAR, ZEC, JUP, DASH, ENA, and FET all dropping over 10%, and HYPE falling 12% after reaching a new high this week. The subsequent performance of altcoins largely depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000; if it falls below this level, it may trigger more liquidations and put greater pressure on trading pairs with weaker liquidity.