Analysis: MSTR has dropped 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost is now higher than the spot price

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has dropped 51% from its peak. The average cost basis for Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings is $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the bear market of 2022. The additional decline of MSTR relative to BTC has reached about 28 percentage points, approaching the upper end of the historical range, but has not yet touched the extreme of an 89% retracement from the 2022 low.

Meanwhile, Strategy's purchasing strategy has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: the weekly BTC purchase volume has been cut by about two-thirds, with less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance used to buy BTC, and the remainder transferred to dollar reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also conducted its first net sell since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler pointed out that the main risk currently lies in BTC remaining below the treasury cost line of $75,000, which would block the financing channel for ATM issuance by compressing the MSTR premium. However, nearly all of Strategy's debt is in convertible bonds, with no additional margin risk; the baseline scenario is the loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidations. The real pressure point lies in the company's transition from selling stock to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.