Data: Bitcoin's net realized profit and loss has been negative for five consecutive months, with the core support range between $48,000 and $56,000

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss (90-day MA) has been negative for the fifth consecutive month, with the current reading at -203.2 million USD. This means the market is systematically locking in losses, consistent with the early stages of past bear market cycles.

However, the cost basis of the holder group shows that the core support is in the range of 48,000-56,000 USD. From the cost basis of various groups, whales (over 10,000 coins) are at 48,100 USD, small addresses (10-100 coins) are at 47,800 USD, and large wallets (1,000-10,000 coins) are at 56,500 USD, all still below the current price. Only the 100-1,000 coin group (65,700 USD) is in a loss position, which is the main source of current loss selling.

Adler pointed out that this contrasts with the complete capitulation in 2022, when almost all groups fell below their cost basis. The current market shows a controllable decline rather than a capitulation pattern, with the main risk being a breakdown of the 48,000-56,000 USD support range. If this range is lost, it will push more holders into losses, opening up deeper downward space.