Analyst: Foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X scenario, launching later with tight supply until the end of the year

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from Tianfeng International Securities stated that the foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X scenario, being launched alongside other models but with pre-order and official sale dates delayed, and supply constraints potentially lasting until the end of 2026.

From the inventory levels in the third quarter of 2026, the foldable iPhone is likely to be similar to the iPhone X in 2017, which was announced alongside the iPhone 8 / 8 Plus on September 12, but due to insufficient inventory, its pre-order and official sale dates were postponed to October 27 and November 3, respectively. Given the limited shipment of the foldable iPhone in the third quarter, pre-orders and official sales may not open until the fourth quarter of 2026.

Kuo mentioned that after communicating with telecom operators, sales channels, and resale/purchasing agents, he believes that even if the foldable iPhone is priced around $2300 to $2500, demand could remain strong at least until the end of 2026. This means that once pre-orders for the foldable iPhone open, it may sell out quickly, and the waiting time for shipments could extend to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer, continuing into December.

He believes that the initial scarcity of the foldable iPhone, its high recognizability, and its innovative user experience could drive up short-term resale prices, making it possible for resale prices to exceed the official price by 50% to 100%.