Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume is rapidly shrinking, and the risk of long squeeze in derivatives is accumulating

Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative trading volume of spot transactions quickly declined. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is difficult to establish a basis for a trend reversal and often represents merely a sentiment-driven recovery, necessitating attention to the sustainability of the rebound.

On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating that the intention to exit is weakening and trading intentions are recovering. Although mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in a state of net outflow, the outflow magnitude continues to narrow, and the marginal improvement in funding pressure supports the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening of spot driving forces means that the weight of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premiums has continuously risen to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying pressure is persistently pushing perpetual prices above spot prices; although open interest has decreased, it remains significantly higher than levels seen in February of this year. Currently, the long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeezes will continue to accumulate—once open interest rebounds again, intense long-short battles will lead to faster and more abrupt volatility, which is a hidden risk that needs to be monitored in advance.