Daily Observation of Crypto Concept Stocks: Strategy mNAV has partially recovered from below 1.0x, Bitwise believes that STRC volatility marks the bottom of the cycle—can the digital credit capital framework rebuild market trust?

mNAV Repair: The Path of Return from Historical Lows to "Reasonable Range"

Strategy holds 847,363 BTC, with a market value of approximately $52 billion calculated at the current $61,359, and a total company cost of about $64.1 billion, resulting in an overall book loss of approximately $12.1 billion. The key valuation metric mNAV (Market Value / BTC Holding Value) first fell below 1.0x (historically for the first time) when BTC was around $58,000---$59,000, indicating that the market has marked the company's equity in BTC at a "discount"; as BTC rebounded to $61,359, mNAV has risen back to about the 1.0---1.05x range (based on the current rough estimate of MSTR's market value, with specific values subject to real-time market prices). Historically, Strategy's mNAV has maintained between 1.5---2.0x in normal market conditions, exceeding 3.0x during the peak period in 2021; the current level of about 1.0x indicates that the dilution effect of ATM (market cap issuance) financing is minimal, and the company's financing through MSTR equity to purchase BTC lacks sufficient premium driving force—this is the fundamental reason pointed out by Crypto.com analysis that "the ATM plan has been suspended and shifted to preferred stock issuance or stock buybacks."

Triple Interpretation of the Digital Credit Capital Framework

The "Digital Credit Capital Framework" released by Strategy on June 29 has sparked three distinctly different interpretations in the market: Interpretation One (Official Narrative): The company has established a systematic capital management tool, with a $2 billion buyback plan stabilizing MSTR and STRC prices, and the BTC sale mechanism providing a transparent liquidity support framework—overall elevating to a "coming of age ceremony for Bitcoin companies," upgrading from a simple "buy and hold" principle to a sustainable capital circulation system; Interpretation Two (Neutral Analysis): The timing of the framework's release coincides closely with mNAV falling below 1.0x, and the BTC sale mechanism is essentially a institutionalized response to the reality of "compressing the preferred stock dividend coverage period from over 7 years to 14 months," representing passive adaptation rather than an active strategy; Interpretation Three (Bitwise's Optimistic Interpretation): The sharp volatility of STRC (falling to a low of $78.9, a 21% discount from the $100 par value) does not indicate a breakdown of the Strategy model, but rather is a "typical feature of leveraged liquidation at the end of a cycle"—institutional investors are waiting to take over the role of incremental buyers of Bitcoin, signaling that the bottom is near. Bitwise further points out that institutional purchases of BTC replacing Strategy do not require mNAV premium reconstruction, only that BTC prices stabilize above the 200-week moving average (around $58,000).

FBI Director Delays Disclosure of MSTR Holdings: The Public Opinion Environment for Institutional Trust Repair

According to CoinMarketCap on July 2, U.S. FBI Director Kash Patel sparked ethical controversy for failing to disclose a significant MSTR stock purchase within the required timeframe—this incident unexpectedly reinforced an important narrative: even at the depths of the crypto bear market, institutions and government officials are still buying MSTR with personal capital rather than selling. It should be noted that the FBI Director's stock purchase reflects personal judgment and does not represent any policy stance, and his delayed disclosure is a procedural violation rather than a substantive legal violation; however, from the perspective of market sentiment, this news unexpectedly aligns with Bitwise's conclusion that "institutions are ready to take over."

July 13 Congressional Reconvening is the Most Important Legislative Node of the Month

The direct trigger for the Bitcoin holiday rebound was Warsh's statement on June 30—"inflation risks have eased"—which reset the market's pessimistic expectations for the interest rate path in 2026. But more importantly: July 13 (Congressional Reconvening) is the last realistic window for whether the CLARITY Act can be completed before the August recess. Galaxy Research has designated the period before the August recess as the "final legislative gate," and Astraea Law estimates the most likely signing time window to be around August 3—this aligns with the timeline for Strategy's $2 billion buyback plan, the market impact of Securitize's $SECZ as a benchmark valuation anchor for RWA tokenization, and the continued accumulation of BTC by companies like Metaplanet, collectively forming the most complete positive condition combination for the valuation repair of crypto concept stocks in H2 2026. If BTC can hold above the 200-week moving average ($58,000) before July 13, this scenario is not out of reach.

Data Source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto Concept Stock Information Database, compiled based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.